Ukraine and Russia risk losing Bakhmut: “Politically unacceptable”

The analysis of British military intelligence and the ISW think tank

The Ukrainian counter-offensive, despite the limits and critical issues also underlined by Western Intelligence, is getting closer to Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops “constantly conquered the north and south” of the region, where Russian troops “probably” have “low morale”, according to a British military intelligence analysis of the situation on the war front in Ukraine.

“After a break in June, Bakhmut has again been the scene of some of the most intense fighting over the past seven days,” note British military analysts, in the usual Twitter update. “Ukrainian forces have been steadily winning both north and south of the Russian-controlled city. It is very likely that the Russian defenders are fighting with low morale, a mix of different units and limited ability to find and hit Ukrainian artillery. And, again, it is noted that Russian leaders “almost certainly” consider it “politically unacceptable to hand over Bakhmut, who has symbolic value”, considering that he is “one of the few Russian successes in the last 12 months”. But “probably” the Moscow government has “little additional reserves to commit in the area”.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank, follows the same line. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has achieved “tactically significant” progress in the Bakhmut area and has continued operations in at least three other sectors of the frontline, reports the Guardian. ISW said geotagged images showed Ukrainian forces gaining ground near villages north and south of Bakhmut, retaking previously lost positions in the area. Military officials confirmed the continuation of offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia and along the border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Russia’s Defense Ministry and other Russian sources said Ukrainian forces were conducting offensive operations in the direction of Kreminna along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border.