There is a real chance that the Russian authorities will no longer pay the Wagner Group. The second most likely contributor is Belarus, according to British intelligence.
The British Secret Service believes that the Wagner Group is “probably moving towards a process of downsizing and reconfiguration, mainly to save staff salary costs”.
The daily intelligence update reported that since the failed uprising in June 2023, the Russian state has acted against some of Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin’s other business interests. According to the report, there is a “real possibility” that the Kremlin will no longer fund mercenaries.
If the Russian state stops paying the Wagner Group, Belarusian authorities are the second most likely payer, but Wagner could make a significant and “potentially unwanted” seizure of Belarusian resources, British intelligence points out.
The Wagner Group in Belarus. Two bases close to the Polish border
In early August, the American Institute for War Studies (ISW) published a map showing Wagner Group camps and training grounds in Belarus. Two of them are close to the border with Poland. One of the training grounds is located near Brest and the other near Grodno. The Wagnerians train Belarusian soldiers in it.
In the main Wagnerian camp in the village of Cel near Osipovich (Mahilev region), British intelligence identified about 300 tents and 200 vehicles. The analysis is based on satellite images taken at the end of July.
According to experts from the Center for Oriental Studies, among the vehicles moved to Belarus by the Wagner Group are several Chekan armored vehicles, which have a reinforced hull structure that can withstand damage after hitting a mine.
According to ISW analysts, Wagner’s mercenaries deployed in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine.
The Wagner group was transferred to Belarus as part of an agreement negotiated during Prigozhin’s coup in Russia.
Mercenaries return to Russia because Lukashenko does not pay?
In recent days there have been unofficial reports that the Wagnerians began to leave Belarus because Alexander Lukashenko refused to fund them when he learned that Russia would not pay for mercenary presence in Belarus.
In Russian social networks, information circulates about 12,000 members of the Wagner Group vacationing in Russia, 7,000 remained in Belarus, and about 1.5 thousand. sent in turn to African countries.
On one of the telegram channels related to Wagner, information was given about the probable return of the mercenaries to Ukraine at the end of August.
ISW points out that reports of the alleged withdrawal of the Wagner Group from Belarus have not yet been commented on by its head, Yevgeny Prigozhin. According to American analysts, this could mean that Prigozhin does not have complete freedom to communicate about the future of the Wagnerians.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
