Ukrainian war, ongoing peace negotiations. What the agreement will depend on

Peace negotiations in Ukraine. As the states of the world gather in New York for the United Nations assembly, laborious peace negotiations take place in the hallways and away from the spotlight. It is also discussed in the article written by Paolo Mastrolilli in La Repubblica on September 21st. The first need is to bring together all the subjects involved around the table. “According to Ansa, this appointment could take place as early as October – writes Mastrolilli – with the format adopted in Copenhagen and Jeddah, therefore with China at the table. what Ukrainians would like to achieve at the end of the year becomes possible, but for Westerners it could be postponed until spring. If all supporters of the Jeddah format presented a unitary and shared proposal, completely ignoring it would be very difficult for Moscow, because it would establish its complete isolation.”

But what does the eventual reaching of an agreement depend on? “A decisive point for the continuation of these talks is the progress of the ongoing counter-offensive – explains La Repubblica – The allies accuse Kiev of not having reached the defense lines mined with drones before the advance, but now it is too late. I believe he will be able to move forward before winter, retaking Melitopol or Mariupol and this should lead the parties to negotiate, especially Ukraine.” But what will be the scenarios for a possible future peace in Ukraine? And what are the timings? “No In the past, there was a lot of talk about Korea, that is, a ceasefire followed by the freezing of the situation on the ground, without a formal treaty – concludes Mastrolilli – During Cardinal Zuppi’s visit, the Chinese made it clear that they would like to go even further far, this is a truce followed by a real negotiation, with mutual concessions, to reach a real peace. A logical starting point could be the Minsk agreement, never fully implemented, even though the reality on the ground has changed and would require updates . Putin will probably not move until at least the March elections, while his American rival Biden would need a solution before his presidential elections next November. This would be the most logical and convenient window to find a way out, if Moscow he will move convince you that the time has come to look for him.”

Source: IL Tempo