Mexico’s challenging and neglected agricultural sector | Article

Mario Luis Fuentes

Among the many shortcomings that can be identified in the economic policy vision and programmatic structure of the current administration, the shortcoming associated with the agricultural sector is perhaps one of the most sensitive, as well as one of the least visible in the national conversation.

Indeed, this government’s proposal has focused on infrastructure creation and revenue transfer programs. But in the area of ​​the rural sector, the original idea of ​​achieving what was understood in presidential parlance as “food sovereignty”, as well as the proposal to create a strong food supply structure through Segalmex, collapsed, both due to the lack of adequate policies and also due to corruption discovered in this organization and the damage caused to the state treasury is estimated at several billion pesos.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the current administration has failed to increase the total agricultural production in the country. In fact, in 2019, according to the report, 20.66 million hectares were sown and 19.3 million hectares were harvested. By 2020, production had fallen to 18.12 million hectares sown and 17.04 million hectares harvested. In 2021, the picture was very similar: 18.15 million hectares were processed and 17.22 million hectares were harvested. Finally, by 2022, the cultivated area amounted to 20.5 million hectares, of which 20.01 million hectares were cultivated. The data is hardly similar to what was reported in 2019.

Figures for 2023 are uncertain as drought experienced in large regions of the country could impact both planted and acreage, causing the United States Department of Agriculture to lower its forecasts for production of specific crops such as corn. Therefore, for the 2023/2024 cycle, the agency estimates a reduction of two percent compared to the market production recorded for the previous cycle, in which 27.4 million tons of corn were available.

In international trade, Mexico has sharply reduced its imports of white corn. The North American Department of Agriculture estimates a 74% reduction in the 2021-2022 cycle compared to the 2012-2013 cycle.

As for other grains, such as wheat, imports are projected to increase by 5.5% by 2023; and an increase in rice imports by 4%; all within the framework of increasing the production of these grains on national soil.

It should also not be forgotten that in recent years Mexico has experienced very high inflation, well above average, especially in the food sector. This calls for greater attention to the possible scenario of worsening drought, which is expected to intensify in the coming months in our country.

The drought monitoring carried out by the National Water Resources Commission (Conagua) shows a more than alarming map, as five major regions of the country are experiencing a drought process with an end date of September 15, 2023. affects several states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Queretaro, Mexico State Aguascalientes, Zacatecas and San Luis Potosi in the central-western part of the country. In the north and northwest the effects are found over very large areas in Durango, Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua; as well as in the border region of Tamaulipas.

As can be seen, these are several of the states with the greatest agricultural production opportunities that, under these conditions, may experience a decrease in yields and animal production for meat production. The above is sensitive because in the regions of these states where there is no severe drought, the CONAGUA monitor indicates a severe drought that is spreading to other areas such as Morelos, Oaxaca, northern Puebla and part of the border. Chiapas region.

Thus, Conagua estimates that as of September 2023, only all of the states of Baja California and Baja California Sur are drought-free; a small strip of northern Sonora, short strips of the coasts of Jalisco, Michoacan and Guerrero; as well as some mountain and jungle areas in the states of Oaxaca, Puebla Tlaxcala, Campeche, Yucatan, Chiapas and Quintana Roo; and a small part of northern Coahuila state.

Thus, 47% of the country is experiencing extreme or severe drought. Which, translated into the number of municipalities affected by drought, is 1688, that is, 68% of all municipalities in the country.

If these conditions continue and worsen, as currently forecast, they could reach levels similar to 2012, which was the worst drought in 20 years. This is also one of the years with the highest inflation in the food sector.

The agrarian question in our country continues to include complex problems that have not been structurally resolved. What today involves the connection of the national market with the global system of prices and trade and has the scale of planetary geopolitical significance, as was shown after the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Candidates for the presidency of the Republic must put forward proposals of the caliber necessary to bring about structural changes on this issue in Mexico. Because at stake is nothing less than, on the one hand, the circulation and management of what is increasingly becoming one of the most valuable resources: water; and on the other, a set of food products necessary to meet the needs of a population that does not cease to grow and whose demand constantly puts pressure on the food sector, with all the ensuing environmental consequences.

Mexico’s rural sector is home to more than 25 million people; and a country’s ability to design and implement a new course of development depends largely on its performance. Therefore, not to direct the gaze and attention that the Mexican countryside demands represents the greatest mistake.

Researcher at PUED-UNAM*

Source: Aristegui Noticias

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