The Hamas attack has been in preparation for at least a year and a half. And there are those who wrote it

An attack carefully prepared for at least a year, in mid-2022, with targeted training certainly carried out outside Gaza, with the fundamental support of Iranian allies, who provided military preparation and logistical assistance, as well as tens of millions of dollars in weapons. This was supported by Western and Middle Eastern intelligence experts interviewed in a long, in-depth analysis published by the Washington Post. While Iran’s precise role in Saturday’s violence has not yet been defined, the attack reflects Tehran’s years-long ambition to encircle Israel with legions of paramilitary fighters wielding increasingly sophisticated weapons systems capable of striking deep within the state. Jewish, experts note. Hamas, the Palestinian militant organization leading the attack, they recall, has historically maintained a certain degree of independence from Tehran, unlike truly pro-Iranian groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah. But in recent years Hamas has benefited from massive injections of Iranian money and technical aid to produce rockets and drones with advanced guidance systems, as well as training in military tactics, partly carried out in camps outside Gaza.

“The amount of training, logistics, communications, personnel and weapons required for the attack leaves a huge footprint,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA operations officer. “This suggests Iranian involvement, given the complexity of the attack, and highlights the colossal intelligence failure.” A colossal intelligence failure for which, perhaps, it would be enough to read the article published on August 31 on the Memri website, the Middle East Media Research Institute, by Yigal Carmon, anti-terrorism expert and for years advisor to Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin entitled: «Signs of a possible war in September-October».

In the article, structured in 5 points, Carmon outlined the situation that actually led to the start of a conflict. “Lately there have been increasing signs that a war against Israel could break out in September or October 2023. The trigger could be a spiral of violent clashes that would cause many casualties, or the use of new weapons that would cause many casualties on the side and that Israel would not be able to combat it with its regular anti-terrorism measures,” the expert wrote. An analysis impressive in its clarity, completeness and precision of what actually happened just over a month later.