The crisis in Guatemala could destabilize the region | Article

Juan Luis Garcia*

Nor is there a country in Latin America that is currently more turbulent than Guatemala. People took to the streets for two weeks in an unprecedented national strike that took the form of roadblocks and avenues across the country. They are protesting to demand the resignation of officials who fabricated cases against the newly elected president’s Semilla party. Bernardo Arevalo.

Crisis in Guatemala This should not go unnoticed by Mexico. Destabilizing the democracy of its southern neighbor, among other things, could easily exacerbate the conditions that are driving thousands of Guatemalan migrants to the northern border with the United States and trigger a humanitarian crisis even greater than the migration drama we are experiencing today.

Also co-optation of the State of Guatemala aggravates the situation in the Central American region, where El Salvador is ruled by an autocracy and the dictatorship of Nicaragua shows no signs of democracy.

So far, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry has expressed its support for Arevalo, who is supported by the international community, especially the United States. The President himself Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador He agreed to meet with the elected president of Guatemala in late September in Texcoco, without making any big promises from the meeting beyond the usual diplomatic protocols.

It is not only the defense of Arevalo’s accession to the presidency on January 14 that makes Guatemalans take on part of the blockades on the streets, but also the conditions under which this social democratic politician will come to power.

Near frontal fight against corruptionled by indigenous leaders with the support of the general population joining in, to prevent the next president from taking office with his hands tied and being removed from office, as we have seen in other Latin American countries in recent years. , first change.

Like López Obrador, Arevalo won a landslide victory in the runoff election on a promise to end corruption, which is felt strongly in Guatemala, where its officials are getting richer while the population suffers the highest rate of acute hunger in Latin America after Haiti (1) . .

Citizenship against corruption

During the six-year term of President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were various proposals from citizens to create an International Commission against Impunity (CICIM) in Mexico. inspired by CICIG (from Guatemala). The question was then asked about the impotence of the Mexican justice system to clarify the case of Ayotzinapa 43, the disappearances or to clarify crimes against journalists.

This UN experiment in this Central American country began in 2006. agreed to an investigation by the Guatemalan prosecutor’s office against corrupt officials, was ousted by former President Jimmy Morales in 2019 after touching the tentacles of the mafia entrenched in the state (and Morales himself).

The commission’s investigations provided evidence of thefts suffered by Guatemalans and sparked protests in 2015 against then-President Otto Pérez Molina, who resigned to face charges.

What’s the point now?

Current protests in Guatemala an attempt to shake people against corruption predominant, which was established in the three branches of government without impediment after the exclusion of the CICIG; Justice in Guatemala has been completely exploited for political purposes, and today this is reflected in the judicial process of the electoral process.

Nobody in Mexico imagines that prosecutor Alejandro Hertz Manero will launch an investigation that would disqualify the party to invalidate the powers of all its newly elected officials. Or that the FGR raided INE facilities during the electoral process and made a confiscation. Well, that’s what he did. Prosecutor Consuelo Porras in Guatemala at the head of the public ministry.

With the complicity of the judge, he intends to leave the Semilla de Arevalo party without legal status. As a result, its MPs will remain in the role of vases, unable to chair committees or participate in the legislative agenda. Therefore this coming to power toothless.

This has not yet come into effect. Although there is a referee’s ruling to annul the match, Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has said the decision cannot take effect while the electoral process, which ends on October 31, is underway. Thus, the fate of the game after this date remains a matter of coin toss.

Arevalo described what happened as “coup d’état in slow motion” and openly called for Porras’ resignation. The prosecutor, appointed by the United States on the Engels list (corrupt and undemocratic figures), was extended by Giammattei to his post until 2026, the majority of Arevalo’s presidential term.

But despite witnessing the biggest protests in Guatemala in 80 years, Porras and the officials (prosecutors Rafael Curruches, Cynthia Monterroso and judge Fredy Orellana) who are required to resign remain in office to avoid losing. the impunity that their position provides them.

There are no easy ways out of this crisis. Spaces engulfed by corruption are unwilling to give in to a new government that promises to do things differently.

The people of Guatemala will not be satisfied with anything other than the resignation of the prosecutor and deputies, and otherwise the resignation of Giammattei. And a new turn to tighten the blockade could happen any time between now and January 14, when Arevalo takes office.

Blood has already been shed. A group of armed men who attacked protesters to liberate a neighborhood in a city near the Mexican border on October 16 ended in murder. Interior Minister Napoleon Barrientos resigned over his refusal to use police to suppress protesters.

We hope that for the good of Guatemala and the region, the Guatemalan authorities will listen to the people, put democracy and the general welfare above their own personal interests, and this is not just the beginning of a crisis that destabilizes the region.

(1) Report on World Food Crises 2023

* Juan Luis García has worked as a journalist in Guatemala, Mexico and the United States.
It was published in the largest media in the region.
He was a 2018 Texas Tribune and Alfred Friendly Foundation Fellow.