Ukraine is preparing to begin its journey to join the European Union. After the green light from the Commission at the beginning of the negotiations, the only thing missing is a formal yes from the Council, which will most likely come in December. The journey will not be easy, nor will it be short, but when it is over, a giant will enter the block and this will bring with it many risks as well as opportunities. Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine is not the only country aspiring to join the EU. There are another 9 countries in line to join the Union, although at different levels of progress (and hope). In the Balkan region, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia are also waiting, as well as Moldova and Georgia, which have a similar route to Ukraine, Albania and North Macedonia. Türkiye, whose membership seems clear, deserves a separate discussion. This means that if (and if) they are admitted to the club, the EU will expand from its current 27 member states to 36. Each of them will have the right to receive a share of the community budget and, naturally, to participate in the legislative process. Contributing to joint decisions to be taken.

In a bloc where 27 people currently move at a snail’s pace and it is often very difficult to reach an agreement, it is inevitable that problems will increase with new arrivals. Ukraine will have the right to speak out, especially in Brussels. With a population exceeding 43 million, it will be the fifth most populous country in the Union, after Germany, France, Italy and Spain. This means it will have one of the largest delegations of MPs in the half-cycle and its weight in the Council, where votes are ‘weighted’ and therefore have a higher value depending on the nation’s inhabitants (Germany’s vote is worth 10 points). Little Luxembourg 2) will be very powerful. Not to mention the veto power that will be given to Kiev on many issues that require unanimity.

Then there is the budget part to consider. New members are given duties and honors, including the ability to benefit from community finances in proportion to the wealth (or poverty) of the nation. And since Ukraine is quite poor, the share of social assistance to which it would be entitled would be very large. For example, this highly agricultural country, considered the “world’s breadbasket”, will have access to Brussels’ generous financing for farmers (CAP, Common Agricultural Policy). Today, CAP is the main item of the EU budget and is worth $386.6 billion over the seven-year period. According to a study by the European Commission, if Ukraine joins the EU today, it will receive 96.5 billion in revenue, which is almost a third of the pie.

For all these reasons, beyond the political solidarity Europe wants to show to the country occupied by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, European governments are slow to take this step. A declaration valid for all ten candidate countries. If the Union wants to continue its expansion, it must first reform itself; This is a process that has been very difficult, if not impossible, to achieve in the past. And he must first carefully consider whether he is really willing to do this. Currently, it is Germany, the giant of the bloc, that has most strongly emphasized the need to revise the agreements to allow expansion, even if it means Berlin loses some of its power. We must keep this in mind, because the geopolitical and even economic advantages of expanding the European bloc are certainly many, but they also have risks.

The risks are increasing because we are talking about countries where the level of democracy is not yet very high and there are huge corruption problems (to be honest, Italy and other member states are not perfect in this respect). Therefore, for example, Germany proposes to first give some states the role of observers, and then give them the role of observers. membership fully loaded. No one wants the problems caused by the constant conflicts over the rule of law in recent years, for example, with Hungary and Poland, to increase. In general, if the European Union wants to expand, it must eliminate the veto power of countries on various important issues. Currently, unanimity is needed in Brussels on decisions regarding foreign policy, citizenship, taxation and finance, as well as enlargement. This means that every member state in the EU, no matter how big or how ‘senior’ it is, has the ability to hold everyone else hostage on certain issues.

Are we sure we want to give this power to Ukraine, Serbia, Kosovo or Turkey? The solution may be to decide these issues by qualified majority; This may still mean going to great lengths to reach the broadest possible consensus, thus avoiding giving too much power to a single government. The role of the European Parliament, which is the only body directly elected by European citizens but which, unlike national parliaments, does not have legislative powers, will also need to be reviewed. That is, it can amend and approve directives and regulations proposed by the European Commission, but cannot propose them respectively. In short, the road to enlargement is very winding beyond words and propaganda. And you’ll need to make bold decisions to follow it.

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