The trend in which China’s economic power continuously grew has stopped, as we read in the Financial Times. The newspaper also writes about the growing role of Poland.
China’s share of the global economy has risen from less than 2%. in 1990 to 18.4 percent in 2021 “No country has ever achieved such rapid growth” – emphasizes Ruchir Sharma in his analysis.
Recently, however, China has begun to experience problems. Over the past two years, China’s share of the global economy has declined up to 17 percent The two-year contraction of 1.4 percent is the worst decline in the Chinese economy since the 1960s.
China is in retreat
Sharma emphasizes that the Middle Kingdom is trying to regain the imperial status it had from the 16th to the early 19th century. Then their share of global economic production reached as much as a third. However, the ambitious goal of returning to that status may elude the Chinese.
In the Financial Times we read that a possible uThe fall of China ‘could change the world order’. Since the 1990s, the country’s share of global GDP has grown mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan. The recent problems of the Chinese economy have mainly benefited the United States emerging countries.
The importance of Poland is growing
The analyst further indicates that the global economy will most likely grow by $8 trillion (to $105 trillion) in 2022-2023. The point is China will have no share of these gains, while the US will have 45% and other emerging countries 50%.
“Half of the gains in emerging markets will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. This is a strong signal about possible upcoming changes in the balance of power.” – we are reading.
China faces demographic problems, but also huge debts, declining productivity, declining workforce, etc.
At the end of his analysis, Sharma points out that whatever Xi does, China’s share of the global economy is likely to decline in the near future. “This is the post-China world now,” he says.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
