Winter is upon us and this could be a turning point for Ukraine. But not in the direction that President Volodymyr Zelensky and the majority of Ukrainians had hoped for. Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently said at the G20, “Russia is ready for peace talks.” But the Kremlin chief’s words appear less like an olive branch and more like a way to put his finger on the wound of the difficulties and doubts gripping Kiev.
The counterattack did not upset the balance on the field; Moscow, on the other hand, appears to have tried to save money to replace its soldiers and arsenal, thanks to supplies from North Korea and apparently Iran. On the other hand, the support of Western allies to Ukraine is weakening due to the deadlock in US aid and delays in European ammunition supplies. The outbreak of conflicts in the Middle East certainly does not help in this sense, and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to power and the rapprochement of political forces in the EU with Putin opens up alarming scenarios for Ukrainians. For all these reasons, the second winter of the war seems to be longer and full of risks than a year ago.
Cold and missiles in Ukraine
The first risk is cold. “Approximately 3.7 million people in Ukraine are internally displaced and face freezing winter conditions after being forced to flee their homes. Many are sheltering in damaged buildings and have limited access to food, electricity and heating.”International Rescue Committee. The situation may worsen in the event of targeted Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure and the power grid. An almost certain possibility for Kiev. Moscow knows the critical points of Ukrainian energy supply inside and out: “With a single blow, they can instantly leave hundreds of thousands of people in the dark,” writes the German newspaper Spiegel. Kiev received anti-aircraft systems from its Western allies and weakened the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, where many raids were made, but Moscow also stepped up the production and import of offensive munitions. Ukrainian engineers have been working tirelessly for months to prevent prolonged outages, and those responsible for Kiev’s infrastructure are confident that the population will be adequately protected thanks to the measures and anti-missile shields. Military situation in the field.
Impasse
“Western leaders are slowly coming to the conclusion that no major breakthrough will come from Ukraine this winter,” writes the US magazine. Speech. Many experts argue that a major victory from Russia’s side is also not expected, although Russia is accumulating new forces in soldiers and weapons on a more permanent basis than Ukraine. Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, and Tetyana Malyarenko, professor of international relations at Odessa National University, say the two sides are almost at an impasse. The impasse assumes that neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have much chance of making progress over the winter.
According to deadlocked theorists, this means that Kiev and Moscow must sit around a negotiating table to negotiate a ceasefire and achieve peace. In this way, Ukraine will be able to focus its efforts on reconstruction and on the path to the European Union and NATO. This option appears to be gaining more and more supporters in both Washington and Brussels; There is a fear here that a prolongation of the conflict could lead to instability in the European political landscape. And it remains to be seen which part of the Ukrainian order unites. “It will not be the victory we dreamed of and it will take much longer than we thought,” said former Infrastructure Minister Volodymyr Omelyan. to healbritish newspaperdian. “The choice is very simple. If we are ready to send 300 thousand or 500 thousand more soldiers to the front to take back Crimea and liberate the Donbass, and if we get the right number of tanks and F16s from the West, we can do it. But I do not see another 500 thousand people who are ready to die, and the West ‘ “I don’t see that Turkey is willing to send the type and quantity of weapons we need,” says Omelyan. The other option is to open a peace table.
Risks of peace
However, Zelensky’s intention does not seem to be the latter. The president set himself a clear goal when he launched the counteroffensive: to recapture Russian-occupied areas not only in Donbass but also in Crimea. Abandoning this goal would have several risky consequences: First, admitting failure could weaken Zelensky politically. Making a breach in the optimistic rhetoric about the counter-offensive, Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, one of Kiev’s great military leaders, was among the first to speak openly of a stalemate. He did this in his interview with himself.EconomistAfter this, rumors began to circulate that there was a deep rift between him and his president, who did not appreciate progress. It is worth adding that Zaluzhny is considered as a possible main rival of Zelensky in the Ukrainian presidential race if the conflict allows a return to the polls.
But the Ukrainian president still has the advantage of having a high approval rating. Moreover, polls show that the majority of Ukrainians oppose negotiations with Russia, especially if they include recognition of lost territory. One more reason why Zelensky should no longer sit at the negotiating table. However, this is not just a matter of internal balance, which could risk ending in an own goal in the long run. There is also the question of his country’s future following a possible short-term peace deal. Repeating the theses supported by some Western commentators, former minister Omelyan argues that the “ceasefire agreement” will allow Kiev to “make major reforms” and “become a member of NATO and the EU”, and that “Russia will collapse and we will collapse too”. Then we will take back Crimea and Donbass.”
In reality, it seems difficult for a country with two large regions in military conflict with Russia to be part of both NATO and the EU. No one in Brussels, where both institutions are based, not even Kiev’s closest allies, is considering the slightest direct conflict with Moscow. If Ukraine joined the Alliance, it would have to declare war on Russia to retake Crimea and Donbass, which would immediately trigger the obligation of NATO allies to send their troops to the front. Accession to the EU also involves a similar mechanism.
Trump’s return
When you look at it from one perspective or another, Zelensky has good reason to be wary of anyone who suggests he make a deal with Putin. But the president also needs to be interested in what is happening in Western politics. Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House would mean losing Washington’s “no buts” support: some Republicans are already blocking the tens of billions of dollars promised by Joe Biden in Kiev. Things are no better for Zelensky even in Europe. The front of EU leaders close to Putin has expanded: Hungarian Viktor Orban was joined by Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. But above all, the victory in the Netherlands of Geert Wilders, a long-time supporter of the Kremlin president, is worrying.
2024 will be an election year: European elections in June, US elections in November. Ukraine may survive the long winter ahead, but may find itself with fewer friends in the West in the coming months. Zelensky knows this and perhaps that is why he wants to recapture as much territory as possible before sitting at the peace table.
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Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
