Why Biden’s support for Israel could cost him re-election

The United States has stood by Tel Aviv since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, and Joe Biden was quick to assure him of his “unwavering commitment” to supporting the nation. The US president has long supported Israel and Jewish nationalism and has always said, “You don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist. I’m a Zionist too.” Biden, who is of Irish Catholic origin, often expresses his closeness to the Middle Eastern country. He repeated over and over again that “if there were no Israel, it would be to protect our interests in the region” and “because we have the same values.”

Biden becomes the largest recipient of donations from pro-Israel groups in history

As Reuters recalls, the president partly reflects his pro-Israel worldview on World War II. He attributed this to his father, who insisted there was no doubt about the righteousness of creating Israel as a Jewish homeland in 1948 after World War II and the Nazi Holocaust. In the Senate, Biden received the most donations from pro-Israel groups in the history of the House of Representatives, receiving $4.2 million, according to the Open Secrets database.

But now his pro-Israel position puts him in a difficult situation with some of his party and his voters, and may even cost him re-election if he cannot regain lost trust by portraying himself as a mediator between the parties. and not just a blind supporter of the work of the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Although Biden and Netanyahu say they are long-time friends, their relationship has become strained in recent months as the White House echoes Israeli opponents who oppose Netanyahu’s plan to limit the Supreme Court’s powers. However, after Hamas killed 1,200 people and took more than 200 hostage on October 7, differences were put aside and Washington once again fully sided with Israel.

American public opinion is on Israel’s side

American public opinion was in favor of Israel’s attack on Gaza, but as the number of Palestinian deaths increased day by day, protests increased in the country, especially among the Democratic voter base. While Republicans are nearly unanimous in supporting any action taken by Tel Aviv, Biden faces opposition from a progressive group pushing for a ceasefire that the Democratic leader has not yet requested. “President Biden, all of America disagrees with you on this, and you have to wake up and understand,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American in Congress, said at a rally for Palestine last month. “We are literally watching people commit genocide,” he added, to applause from the march.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released two weeks after the Hamas attack found that support for Israel was higher among Republicans (54%) compared to 37% among Democrats, and that support for a tougher stance on Israel was rising as civilian deaths in Gaza increased. showed that it increased. And with the 2024 presidential election coming, Biden knows his stance on the war could be decisive.

States in Balance

The race could end up neck-and-neck with Donald Trump in swing states like Georgia and Michigan, where Muslim and Arab American voters voted Democratic three years ago. And losing them could cost Biden dearly, who won in Michigan in 2020 by a margin of 2.78%, or 154,188 votes, and even in Georgia, by a paltry 0.23%, or 11,779 votes. If these people switch to Republicans or even abstain, it could be a disaster for Biden.

As the New York Times reported in a long and in-depth report, protests among the party base and even officials are growing stronger every day; The number of Palestinian casualties exceeds 12,000, including more than 5,000 children. Ghada Elnajjar was among the Palestinian Americans who began mobilizing and raising money for Biden in Georgia in 2020, along with the group Arab Americans for Biden.

He said the group’s campaign promise that “Joe Biden believes in the value of every Palestinian and every Israeli” is now gone. “I felt like we were able to come together as a community to elect this president who knows us, who is happy to partner with us,” he told the newspaper. “And you might think that comes with influence and power, but to be completely sidelined on the most important issue on which the president was elected is shocking,” he added.

And his voice is just one of many voices rising in Arab society. A few weeks after the war began, Biden invited a small group of prominent American Muslims to the White House to discuss Islamophobia in the country. According to the testimony of many witnesses, the argument was quite heated; participants told the president that his support for Israel after the October 7 attacks was seen by many as permission to indiscriminately bomb Gaza.

delicate balances

“He acknowledged there were missteps in rhetoric,” said Wa’el Alzayat, CEO of Emgage, a group that mobilizes Muslim voters who attended the meeting. “Biden listened, he showed empathy, and he promised to do better, especially when it comes to humanizing Palestinians,” he acknowledged.

His stance has changed slightly since then, and Biden has combined words of support for Tel Aviv, albeit in a very moderate way, with stronger calls for vigilance and the protection of Palestinian civilians as civilian balances deteriorate. Losses reached catastrophic levels. In an editorial published in the Washington Post on November 18, Biden expressed empathy not only for the Israeli victims of Hamas attacks, but also for the Palestinian civilians affected by Israel’s military offensive. “I am also saddened by the images of Gaza and the deaths of thousands of civilians, including children,” Biden wrote, adding: “Every innocent Palestinian lost is a tragedy that tears families and communities apart.”

However, these words will not be enough for the party to regain the support it has lost among its left, as well as its Arab and Muslim base, and it will continue its actions in the coming weeks as the conflict restarts after a short time. The end of the humanitarian pause could be decisive for his re-election chances.

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