With the end of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a new phase of the war in Gaza began, which risks being bloodier than the previous ones. Israel remains determined to seize control of the southern part of the Strip, particularly Rafah and especially Khan Younis, where Hamas’s main leaders, Yahwa Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, are believed to be based, along with thousands of fighters and possibly a soldier. There are a significant number of Israeli hostages. The overall stated goal remains to destroy the military and political capacity of the armed group, which, according to a recent IDF estimate, has half of the Israeli army’s 14 operational battalions still in the north and at least 10 more in the north. South .
Deaths among Palestinians, the majority of whom are currently civilians, currently number around 15,000, and the number is likely to rise further as fighting and bombings shift to the increasingly populated southern part of the Strip. According to the United Nations Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA), nearly 1.7 million people have been displaced in Gaza since October 7 in response to evacuation orders from the heart of the war zone. Many already live in difficult conditions in the south and in overcrowded shelters; Tens of thousands of people are taking shelter in schools, hospitals and, in many cases, tents. These are people who have nowhere else to escape and who inevitably face the risk of coming under Israeli artillery fire.
Gaza Mayor Yahya al-Sarraj told Al Jazeera that, based on analysis of satellite images, 60 percent of the capital’s residences and apartments were destroyed. However, it is estimated that 10-15 percent of the buildings in Khan Younis were damaged. Tel Aviv has authorized the establishment of a security zone in Al Mawasi, but it is just over four kilometers long and about 2.5 kilometers wide at its widest part. Of course, it will not be enough to accommodate all civilians and displaced people. More could be created as Israeli troops advance. In order to protect the wounded, sick and civilians from the effects of hostilities, safe zones required by the First and Fourth Geneva Conventions must be established and must not be attacked. An occupying power, such as Israel in Gaza, can create such safe zones, but usually requires mutual agreement between the parties to ensure that these zones are not exploited or attacked.
At present, these agreements have not been reached and, in any case, remain extremely difficult logistically in a small region like Gaza. Any attempt to house hundreds of thousands of displaced people in a region that is now virtually devoid of basic infrastructure such as hospitals would face an enormous humanitarian challenge, the UN said, which would likely include the establishment of emergency shelters such as tent cities. The Gaza Strip currently hosts eight refugee camps for people displaced by previous wars, which have turned into overcrowded cities for decades, and the United Nations does not want to take responsibility for establishing another camp.
One idea circulating in some circles, although not public, is that the Israeli army will have to organize the evacuation of civilians, village by village or region by region, moving the population elsewhere over time, before attacking to seize control of the terrain and the tunnels beneath it. As in A Risk to Time. As in the past, Israeli aircraft dropped leaflets on the residents of Al Qarara, Khuza’a, Abasan and Bani Suhayla, asking them to immediately evacuate and go to shelters in the city of Rafah. If the movement takes place, the same people may one day be asked to leave Rafah and go to another (so-called) safe area. Another possible approach that US and Israeli officials are considering is for Israel to allow civilians sent to southern Gaza at the start of the war to return north, a senior US official told CNN.
But such a plan creates practical difficulties. First, due to the Israeli advance, large areas in northern Gaza were devastated and kilometers of buildings were reduced to rubble. Where should these people go? The prospect of a long war and, above all, the possibility of further evacuations in an increasingly smaller part of the Strip raises concerns that Tel Aviv’s real goal is to depopulate the Strip and force Palestinians to emigrate. To understand how long the war could last, consider that Beit Hanoun, Gaza’s northernmost city, was attacked and surrounded after an initial aerial bombardment, and that Colonel Arye Baat, commander of the 252nd Division, a reserve unit, said it would take a lot of time. “About 24 days” to take military control in heavy fighting.
Estimates suggest there are 30,000 effective Hamas fighters in the Strip, but given the war and the horrific death toll that accompanies it, it’s not hard to imagine new members could join the organization, making it nearly impossible to truly eliminate it. “You can’t kill 30,000 Hamas militants and move on to the next level,” warned Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank in Washington. “Whether it is the new generation of fighters or Hamas members who have cards but are not yet fighters, they will just pick up the rifle and join the resistance against the Israelis. The fighting will not stop,” he predicted.
But Israel needs to act quickly; because the cost of the war is high for the Jewish state and international support will not last forever. Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip cost 77 Israeli soldiers, in addition to the approximately 1,200 Israelis killed in Hamas’ initial offensive, and approximately 300,000 reservists were called up. This is an unprecedented figure that has left the national economy severely deprived of workers and young talents. Some reservists may soon have to return to civilian jobs. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu knows that it can count on the unprecedented goodwill of the West after the horrors perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, but these reserves are not infinite, and international calls for moderation will become increasingly louder as the number of victims seems destined to increase dramatically.
“We do not support operations in the south unless and until the Israelis demonstrate that they account for all the internally displaced people in Gaza,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday. Joe Biden’s support for Netanyahu has cost him politically both at home and abroad, as some Democratic voters defected, and could jeopardize his re-election in the next presidential election in June. Moreover, US foreign policy objectives in the Arab world and elsewhere risk being jeopardized if Washington further angers non-Western countries by providing unconditional support for Israel.
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Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
