Ukraine’s fate is in the hands of the West’s most pro-Putin prime minister, Viktor Orban. To be more precise, it is in Kiev from 10 billion euros, which the European Commission has frozen for some time due to the Hungarian government’s violation of the rule of law, and which Brussels is now freezing to persuade Budapest to consent to the sending of new aid.
This is the paradox around which this very delicate game is being played, which will allow the bloc’s leaders to start negotiations from Thursday on an additional 66 billion additional funding package to the EU budget requested by the Commission. This package also includes $50 billion in grants and loans, which President Volodymyr Zelensky was eagerly awaiting and which Orban vetoed. Kiev’s coffers are increasingly empty, and without fresh resources, not only military operations in the field are at risk, but also the resilience of the Ukrainian people and economy to winter.
The U.S. stalemate is already weighing on the former Soviet country, with a Republican-majority Congress and Congress appearing unwilling to approve the new aid promised by President Joe Biden. Zelensky is currently in Washington to support the head of the White House and try to find a solution to the impasse. But thoughts also inevitably turn to Brussels. The EU summit will start on Thursday and all conditions are present for the summit to turn into a marathon.
There are basically three issues: the increase in the European budget between now and 2027, aid to Ukraine and Kiev’s EU membership. The accession file seems to have nipped in the bud: The 27-person group of diplomats who met to prepare the work of prime ministers and heads of state before the summits made it clear that the opening of negotiations for Ukraine’s accession would not have a positive outcome. comes within the year. Orban also has a veto here. He interrupted by saying, “Membership does not coincide with Hungary’s national interests.” But in this case, the Budapest leader is not the only reason for the impasse: starting negotiations with Kiev means opening a Pandora’s box of expansion with 7 other countries, including Albania, waiting to become part of the EU club. Resistance to enlargement is abundant and concerns many member states.
In order not to make the summit even more difficult, the participation file needs to be put aside. The battle (again, not just for Orban’s vetoes) will be over new European funds. The European Commission predicts that: To convince Budapest, the $10 billion so far frozen for Hungary must be released. Without these resources, the country of Hungary risks becoming economically unstable, the International Monetary Fund said. Officials in Brussels claim that Orban made the reforms requested from him, especially in the field of justice, in order to receive the funds. But this version does not convince everyone, and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen can be accused of succumbing to Orban’s blackmail.
In any case, if Orban lifts his veto, the EU could eventually allocate the promised $50 billion to Kiev. However, it is not certain that the 27 will reach an agreement on the rest of the resources in question. Part of the aid to Ukraine ($17 billion in subsidies) is part of the increase in the European budget requested by the Commission months ago. A total of 66 billion, a significant part of which directly affects Italy: Inside, Pnrr 19 billion is there to cover the increase in interest rates on European bonds, and 15 billion is for agreements with African and Mediterranean countries to stop the flow. 10 more for immigrants (one of the prime minister’s key challenges in Europe) and transition investments.
As always when it comes to reaching taxpayers’ pockets, frugal countries have already built a wall: it is nice to make sacrifices for Ukraine, but for other issues at stake (migrants, transit and Pnrr) it is about the seriousness of calculations. In practice, Germany and the Netherlands request the Commission to find some of the funds allocated to other programmes, especially those allocated to cohesion (i.e. structural funds for the regions) and agriculture. Cuts led by the government of Giorgia Meloni that Southern countries did not like.
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Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
