Kiev’s 2024 strategy: “Turn to defense”

Readaptation. It seems that this will be the keyword for Ukraine in 2024, at least judging by the statements collected by the international press in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. The population is preparing for the new year with different expectations than those developed so far. Although his popularity remains high, President Volodymir Zelensky has to deal with a variety of factors: a failed counter-offensive by his army, reduced aid, and changing public opinion about a war that seems “exhausting” and that we are beginning to embark on. to ask for a solution. Also diplomatic.

military disappointment

For Ukrainians, 2023 was a difficult and in many ways disappointing year. The long-awaited counter-offensive in the eastern and southern areas soon stalled; Russia’s bombing of city centers continues, with the destruction of strategic structures such as power plants and central heating systems. The fiasco of the counterattack apparently leads to the development of new strategies. “Now is the time to go on the defensive,” Ukrainian analyst Igar Tyshkevich told Al Jazeera, referring to the need to protect the front line that stretches more than a thousand kilometers along eastern and southern Ukraine. “Ukraine’s logic in the winter campaign is to hold the front. Take care of the Black Sea, keep the ports open, work in the political sphere to ensure that military aid is received as spring approaches,” Tyshkevich said. he added.
According to Al Jazeera, some Ukrainian military experts pointed out that both military personnel and arsenals in Kiev are insufficient. Under these conditions, it is unlikely that we will attack next year.

People want negotiations with Russia

The constant sense of danger to which Ukrainians are exposed also apparently changes their perspective on how and how long the war can be waged. According to polls, the number of Ukrainians who believe the war should continue until all lost territory is regained, including the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, is decreasing. A Gallup poll in October showed that 60% of the population was in Ukraine. Interviewees believed in an imminent military victory for Kiev. Last year, this rate was 70 percent. Almost a third (31%) of those surveyed think peace talks with Russia should start “as soon as possible”, compared to 26% last year. Urgent negotiations are mostly supported by residents of southern (41%) and eastern (39%) Ukraine, where most of the fighting this year has occurred.

The war was overshadowed by conflicts in the Middle East

There is another factor that is pushing Ukrainians to rethink the fate of the conflict and how it should be managed. Israel’s war in Gaza has effectively overshadowed the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in both Western media and international public opinion. This situation also changes the economic and military support of Western powers. Since the war began in 2022, aid from the United States and the European Union has been indispensable for Kiev to cover the costs of the war and imagine a future after the armies silence their weapons. “Theoretically, Ukraine can survive on its own for six months to a year,” Ukrainian analyst Aleksey Kusch told Al Jazeera. A key factor for security will be the return of refugees and the ability to obtain significant investment. Since February 2022, more than six million people have left Ukraine, mostly heading towards Poland and Eastern European countries. Eight million people were also displaced within the country.

NATO and European Union membership

Economic growth will also depend largely on the blocking of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov to completely resume grain and steel shipments. Signs of economic recovery are already visible this year compared to 2022, when gross domestic product will decrease by a third. According to the International Monetary Fund, GDP increased by 2% in October and aims to reach 3.2% in 2024. There is a lot of hope for Ukraine to join both NATO and the European Union, which will protect the country. against new threats from Russia at both political, economic and military levels in the long term. Member countries for membership in the Atlantic Alliance agreed to simplify Ukraine’s path, without specifying the timing. In mid-December, Brussels decided to open negotiations for Kiev’s accession despite Hungary’s obstacles, including additional funds to be sent to Ukraine. Although great progress has been made, most Ukrainians believe it will take at least a decade to achieve both memberships.

Zelensky lost popularity

There is no chance of a political changing of the guard for 2024. In mid-November, all political parties in the Verkhovna Rada, the lower house of the Ukrainian parliament, agreed to postpone presidential and parliamentary votes until the end of the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy still has a high approval rating among the public (62%) and remains the most popular political figure in the country. However, its rating dropped compared to the incredible 84% recorded in December 2022. Both the failure of the counter-offensive and the corruption scandals in the army that have emerged in recent months have weakened his figure. According to one poll, his only possible political rival could make a dramatic rise in the hearts of Ukrainians: Valery Zaluzhny. However, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces has never expressed political ambitions until now.