At least 500 Russian missiles and drones have landed in Ukraine over the past five days, in what Kiev described as Moscow’s biggest air strike since the beginning of the war. The good news for President Volodymyr Zelensky is that Patriots and other defense systems from the West have minimized losses and damage. The bad news is that the barrage of fire unleashed by Vladimir Putin on New Year’s Eve may only be the beginning of a new phase of the war, that long and difficult winter that the Kremlin leader experienced after sending messages to some people. In peacetime, it aims to demonstrate the full power of its military arsenal to Ukraine, the world and, above all, its citizens.
fifth term
Yes, because the reference horizon of this phase of the war for observers is March 17, 2024, when Putin will be re-elected as president of the Russian Federation for the fifth time. There is no doubt about the chances of success. On the contrary, the vote will help the Kremlin leader respond to the cracks that have opened up internally: on the one hand, public fatigue with the war, and on the other hand, the establishment’s doubts about continuing to hold on to power after the war. The defeat of the betrayer of Evgeny Prigozhin.
“This election is a way for Putin to legitimize his decision to go to war in Ukraine,” he told the British newspaper. Guard Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. According to polls, 52 percent of Russians still support what the Moscow regime calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine. But fatigue is slowly beginning to set in among the population, especially among the families of reservists who continue to die on the front, but also among those who fear for the future of a country that is increasingly isolated, at least in the West.
normality of war
Putin wants to respond to these fears primarily by praising progress on the ground: Ukraine’s counteroffensive was repelled, and Moscow would have strengthened its army and arsenal more than Kiev had, grappling with delays in military and military operations. Economic aid from the United States and the European Union. Moreover, Zelensky is dealing with worrying internal disagreements, especially with some leaders of the armed forces. Putin knows this and wants to focus on this to weaken the enemy: “He is an animal, he smells the blood of his prey” in a difficult situation, it is no coincidence that the Ukrainian president said in an interview with the Economist.
Visiting the soldiers in the hospital, Putin said, “Kiev’s military equipment is running out and we will increase its production.” During this visit, the Russian leader started a kind of election campaign. Making it clear that this campaign will focus not only on the war but also (though not primarily) on the supposed economic successes of his last term. “The fact that elections are being held serves to show Russians that life is going on as normal. Putin wants to project an air of calm,” says Marat Gelman, a former adviser to the Kremlin leader. Gelman’s message continues: War “does not prevent Russians from living an orderly and happy life.”
Opposition has been silenced
It is no coincidence that Putin, during his visit to the troops, drew a parallel between the situations in Russia and Ukraine: he said that the West “is beginning to understand that Russia cannot be destroyed”: the country’s GDP will “grow by 3.5%” by the end of 2023 “, the unemployment rate is “at the lowest level in history”, while “people’s real incomes have increased”. Putin, on the contrary, emphasized that “Ukraine’s economy is completely ruined, but it exists thanks to the donations requested by its leaders.”
But glorifying (presumed or real) successes on the battlefield and in the economy does not seem to be enough for the Russian leader to feel secure against domestic risks. Opposition has been silenced even more violently, as demonstrated by the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison. Putin’s only rival at the moment is journalist Ksenia Sobchak, whose family has been a long-time friend of the president. The Kremlin leader doesn’t just want to win, he wants to win big. And show the order that there is no alternative for the future of the country.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
