Middle East, disturbing scenarios: “It’s already a regional war”, what awaits us

The attacks by the United States and Great Britain against the Houthis in Yemen, the wait for retaliation from the increasingly powerful armed group, the role of Iran against Israel after the Hamas attack on the Palestinians on October 7: no longer does it It makes sense to talk about a risk of expanding the conflict in the Middle East, because what is being fought “is already a regional war”. This is the conviction shared by analysts and observers from some of the countries affected by the crisis, highlighting at the same time that we are not yet in the worst possible scenario – direct involvement of Iran or a real conflict between Israel and Hezbollah – but rather a war on a relatively low intensity scale. And this is because, sources from a country in the region explain to Adnkronos, “it is difficult to say whether Iran”, at the head of the strategic coordination of the so-called ‘Axis of resistance’, of which the Houthis are also part, “wants an escalation or wants avoid it.” “The signals it sends would go in this second direction”, if it weren’t for the fact that, according to the Tehran regime’s assessment, it is Israel that continues to push for escalation. And in the face of “enemy aggression, Iran cannot be passive, so as not to further encourage Israel and not project an image of weakness”, is the analysis of the sources. Meanwhile, retaliation is expected from the Houthis, “who have grown a lot militarily”, thanks to the sophisticated weapons supplied by Tehran and whose capabilities, as stated by Yemeni analyst Farea al-Muslimi, researcher at the Middle East and North Africa Program of Chatham. House, would only have been harmed in attacks that he defines as only “symbolic”.

The Houthis resisted the bombings of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for eight years and “were unable to bring them to their knees”, emphasizes Gregory Johnsen, from the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, according to those who, with the attacks on London and Washington, and More generally, the Western allies wanted to “send a message, but the key question is: if the message is not conveyed, what will be the next step?” Raid on multiple targets? Longer attacks?” The Houthis, echoes Nadwa Dawsari, an expert at the Middle East Institute, «have been desperately waiting for 20 years for a confrontation with America and Israel. Since October 7, they have recruited 45 thousand fighters, today the United States and the United Kingdom have fulfilled their dream of a direct confrontation. In reality, what could come even closer is a direct confrontation with Iran: sources from the Biden administration, whose first objective continues to be to avoid a regional war, said they have no other choice, after diplomacy, contacts confidential information and threats have failed to stop Houthi attacks in recent weeks. Behind which, they have no doubt, is Tehran: «Iran was involved from an operational point of view. They provided information and intelligence to the Houthis and used capabilities” in attacks against ships in the Red Sea.