Three years ago, when his followers stormed the Capitol, killing 9 people and plunging the United States into a democratic crisis almost like a South American country, the idea of Donald Trump returning to lead Republicans in the race for the White House seemed overly simplistic. unlikely . A year later, that impression was confirmed when the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago home and his loyalists were defeated in a midterm election. But just months before the presidential election and despite 91 criminal complaints against him, the 77-year-old billionaire is ready to return to the center of the political scene. And to regain not just the leadership of the party, but also the seat occupied today by Democrat Joe Biden.
Iowa is where it all began
The starting whistle for a sensational revenge that will have knock-on effects both at home and in the rest of the world will sound in the small state of Iowa, which traditionally kicks off primaries to choose the presidential candidate. Trump should definitely win here: polls give him 52%; by a wide margin over his main rivals, namely former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (who became famous for her speeches defending the businessman’s pyrotechnic foreign policy) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Businessman’s advantage
At the national level, Trump’s advantage over his rivals is even wider: 62.8% of Republican voters support the former president, according to the average of FiveThirtyEight national polls, with Haley and DeSantis tied at just under 12%. Viewed this way, Trump’s victory seems inevitable: “We will definitely win,” the billionaire politician assured his supporters, referring to both the primaries and the possible challenge to Biden. A prophecy that few to this day can deny. However, there may be big surprises in the primaries. And her opponents, especially Haley, may have some cards to play to make a comeback.
Risks for Trump
The first card is cold: Iowa is experiencing an extraordinary round of bad weather, with snowstorms piling up to 30 centimeters in some places. Voting in the Midwestern state of 3 million people is done using the caucus system: Voters will need to meet in the afternoon, listen to speeches by representatives of various election campaigns, and then vote on the ballot. It’s a complex mechanism that could lead to lower turnout and a less landslide victory for Trump, thanks to a cold wave.
Without victory declared, experts highlight how the former president could miss an opportunity: His image of invincibility, a central aspect of Trump’s rhetoric, risks being damaged for the remainder of the race. Haley could even pull off a victory, especially in New Hampshire, the next stage of the Republican primary. The election campaign is also playing on the psychological profile, and Trump’s shaky start could complicate his path.
judicial troubles
At least that’s what Democrats, as well as their internal party rivals, are hoping for. In reality, peers say Iowa’s results don’t matter all that much to the future of the tournament. When Trump first entered the primaries in 2016, he came to Iowa as the poll favorite but ultimately lost to Ted Cruz. We all know how the race ends.
Haley and DeSantis may see this example for power, but those who know the dynamics of the Republican public well see a comeback difficult. “It’s very likely that Trump will be the nominee,” Sarah Longwell, the Republican’s expert election strategist, told the British newspaper. financial times. But this is not necessarily enough to secure a new term. Much will depend on the courtroom: If the atmosphere of persecution has so far united his loyalists and supported his political resurgence, a possible conviction could prevent him from returning to the White House. Some polls suggest that voters, especially unaffiliated and undecided voters, will be much less receptive to Trump if he is found guilty in court. “People now know what they don’t like about Joe Biden,” Longwell says again. “When Trump returns front and center, they will remember the things they hated about him,” the Republican strategist explains.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
