Because the far right is taking over Germany

More than a million people in Germany are taking to the streets these days to protest the AfD, a far-right party caught by storm after an investigation revealed that some of its leaders attended a secret meeting to plan deportations. Number of immigrants abroad, including German citizens of foreign origin. News that takes us back to the dark years of Nazism, but it doesn’t seem to be enough to undermine the enormous consensus that the AfD enjoys.

Far right in shields

In fact, Alice Weidel’s party ranks firmly in second place among German parties: a fifth of voters, 20%, will vote for AfD today. There is a very strong consensus in the once-communist areas in the east of the country; So much so that in the next regional elections the party could take over government in three countries: Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. But Weidel and his colleagues are also making inroads into Germany’s wealthier parts of the west, gaining the trust of more moderate voters.

The rise of the AfD is even more surprising when we consider that the party is just over ten years old: it was founded in 2013 by a group of liberal economists who disliked criticisms of the euro and the comparison of taxes on German taxpayers. money to help Southern European countries whose accounts were in the red, most notably Greece and then Italy (this was in the midst of the eurozone crisis).

party of crises

The AfD’s manifesto quickly achieved some success; so much so that in that year’s federal elections its vote share reached almost 5%. The party, then led by entrepreneur Frauke Patry, the wife of a Lutheran pastor, began to free itself from a purely economic profile to focus on the fight against immigration and Islam. This is a successful political marketing operation: between 2015 and 2016, the Eurozone crisis was replaced by the migrant crisis. Angela Merkel, then Chancellor, bowed to the pressure of Italy and the international community and decided to open the doors to 1 million Syrians fleeing the war. and thousands of refugees landing on our shores.

The AfD points to Merkel’s move, which was appreciated by her party’s Christian-social wing (CDU) but opposed by those further to the right. Perhaps at this point, the AfD’s conquest of moderate votes begins, as it temporarily abandons its anti-Euro stance and concentrates on the fight against immigration. Petry was replaced by Alice Weidel, who was considered more moderate. In the 2017 federal elections, the AfD won over 12% of the vote; this rate remained more or less constant in subsequent years.

sanitary cord

The problem for the new leader, Weidel, is to turn votes into opportunities for the government, at least at the local level. In a country still bearing the scars of Nazism, the connections of many members of the AfD to extremist movements support the establishment of a security cordon not only of the German left but also of the centre-right. Without an alliance with the Christian Democrats of the CDU, it will be impossible for Weidel and his colleagues to become a ruling force even in the eastern lands, where the AfD has gathered popular discontent in places that were once working people’s strongholds. class left.

However, the last federal elections opened new horizons for the party: the victory of the government consisting of Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and the Greens and Liberals forced the CDU to reconsider its strategies. And new leader Friedrich Merz has made clear that he is willing to cooperate with the AfD. Since then, Weidel’s party has begun to grow, surpassing 20 percent in the polls. If there were a federal vote tomorrow, the CDU and AfD would have the majority.

Reasons for the rise

The rise of the centre-right and far-right has undoubtedly been fueled by the crisis of Scholz’s government and, more generally, of the German economy, which has fallen into a worrying spiral of recession. Environmental policies promoted by the Greens are causing heated protests across the country, especially from farmers who take to the streets with their tractors to object to cuts in diesel subsidies and concessions on agricultural vehicles. AfD took action to support these protests. Moreover, as in Italy, part of the population believes that support for Ukraine and the “disconnection” with Russian gas (which for decades was the main source of energy for German industry) were the trigger of the economic crisis. The AfD has also always adopted a pro-Moscow stance.

There is also the immigration issue: Ecfr research has revealed that Germany is by far the European country where this issue is felt the most. For 31 percent of Germans, the immigration crisis is the first problem they will face. Although Scholz’s government has tried to take a tough stance against illegal immigration, voters seem to prefer the original, the AfD, to the draft.

Dexit

The next European elections also give Weidel’s party an additional consensus weapon: Euroscepticism. It may seem paradoxical on our shores that various political forces (such as the League, the AfD’s ally in Europe, among others) accuse Brussels (and the Euro) of serving Berlin’s interests (and to Berlin’s detriment). Italy). However, a significant part of the German population thinks that the EU is an obstacle. It is no coincidence that at that time, Weidel praised Brexit in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times and was open to the possibility of a referendum to remove Germany from the European Union, called Dexit. Weidel said the AfD wanted reform of the EU’s “democratic deficit” but “if reform is not possible, if we cannot restore the sovereignty of EU member states, then we must let the people decide, as the UK has done.” .