Threat or provocation? It is difficult to find an answer to this when Kim Jong Un made alarming remarks that will increase tensions at the 38th parallel. Last week, analysts around the world questioned the meaning of the North Korean leader’s decision to launch a full review of relations with South Korea; This would include eliminating any reference to the possibility of “reunification” between the two countries. reserved and hostile. According to dictator Kim, South Korea is North Korea’s “main enemy and greatest enemy.”
In short, it threw away decades of political efforts aimed at achieving a future peaceful reconciliation between the two Koreas through a two-system confederation. All these changes were accompanied by aggressive speeches and threats that the field marshal wanted to launch at his opponents: the launch of a medium-range missile with a hypersonic warhead (five times the speed of sound and high maneuverability in flight) and testing with a drone nuclear submersible called “Haeil”, to name a few .
Who wants what?
What does the third man of the Kim dynasty really aim for? “The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since the beginning of June 1950. It may seem overly dramatic, but we believe that Kim Jong Un, like his grandfather in 1950, made the strategic decision to go to war.” . Former CIA Robert L. Carlin and nuclear expert Siegfried S. Hecker, both of Stanford University and a pioneer of the missions in North Korea, write in an article published in ’38 North’, one of the most important expert sites on North Korea. – ‘Is Kim Jong Un preparing for war?’ titled.
“We don’t know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger, the duo wrote in a Jan. 11 article, goes well beyond the routine warning levels issued in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s ‘provocations.’ In other words, North Korea “We are not seeing war preparation themes emerge in the media as typical North Korean bluster since the beginning of last year.”
“Raising the specter of Pyongyang’s decision to move towards a military solution – in effect warning of war – in the absence of ‘concrete’ evidence is a thorny task. Typically, it will be confronted by the now routine argument that Kim Jong Un would do such a thing.” He does not dare to take the step because he “knows” that if he does, Washington and Seoul will destroy his regime. If this is what the politicians think, it is the result of a fundamental misinterpretation of Kim and Kim’s vision of history. It will lead to disaster (on the part of both Kim and Washington). “A serious failure of imagination that can lead to
Misunderstanding of North Korean politics
Per Carlin, former director of the Northeast Asia Division of the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, where he participated in negotiations between the United States and North Korea, and Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and Stanford professor emeritus, is at the heart of the University’s “failure to understand the history of the last 33 years of North Korean politics.”
They note that Washington and Seoul “remain committed to the belief that their alliance, backed by an ‘iron’ deterrent, will keep Kim on track with the status quo, perhaps with little provocation.” Symbols of our intent to retaliate will keep the North at bay, as will our oft-stated belief that if the North attacks, a counterstrike will completely destroy the North Korean regime. But in the current situation, adhering to these beliefs could be fatal. “.
North Korea “has a large nuclear arsenal of 50 or 60 missile-launch warheads that, by our estimates, could reach all of South Korea, nearly all of Japan (including Okinawa), and Guam.” After decades of trying, Kim became convinced that there was no way to involve the United States; “His last words and actions point to the possibility of a military solution using this arsenal.”
At the beginning of 2024, Kim dangerously increased tensions on the Korean peninsula. But probably the scenario of the two US analysts aims to force the US (or even China) to take control of the Korean file before Kim makes a desperate move.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
