Old age begins earlier and earlier | Mario Luis Fuentes

Mario Luis Fuentes

Mexico is a country that is aging, and doing so very quickly. In less than three decades, the aging index, that is, the ratio existing between the population, has increased by 2.85 times. Indeed, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), it increased from 16 to 47.7. It is important to say that this index measures the number of people over 60 years of age per 100 girls and boys under 14 years of age.

According to the recorded trend, and if the current rate of acceleration continues, by 2050 at the latest the country will reach an average index of 100, that is, it will have the same number of older people as girls and boys under 14 years of age.

It must also be said that there are very important differences between the states of the Republic. For example, a third of the country’s states already have rates higher than the national average, six of which stand out: Yucatan, with a rate of 52.4; Sinaloa – 52.7; Colima – 52.9; Morelos – 58.5; Veracruz with 59 and Mexico City with 90.2. This highlights the fact that Mexico City is expected to reach an index of 100 no later than 2030. Both Morelos and Veracruz may be in the same case, since in these states the aging index has quadrupled between 1990 and 2020.

In the opposite direction are the states of Tabasco with an aging index of 39.4; Baja California Sur – 38.4; Aguascalientes – 37.7; and from 28.7. Chiapas and Quintana Roo respectively. In this regard, it should be noted that although their rates are the slowest in the country, the trends are also very accelerating, since in the state of Chiapas the observed growth rate was 2.68 times between 1990 and 2022; while in Quintana Roo the change was 3.54 times greater.

This demographic structure creates enormous problems for the country because it confirms what has been said since the 90s: Mexico needs a new strategy for sustainable development of the southeast because in the next three decades it will become one of the regions with the largest labor force; while in organizations such as Mexico City and the other cities mentioned, the workforce will gradually be reduced, but with this the professional profiles of the jobs offered will change.

On the other hand, it must also be taken into account that in addition to the aforementioned demographic transition, Mexico is facing a very accelerated epidemiological transition, which has led to a disease burden whose weight in human mortality and hospitalization is concentrated in no more than 30 countries. conditions. .

In addition to the above, it is necessary to understand that such a configuration of the country’s epidemiology requires differentiation of chronological age from the biological age of people. The first obviously refers to the time that has passed since birth; but the second refers to what can be considered “real aging”, given the state of health in which people’s bodies find themselves.

This “biological age” is determined genetically, as well as by people’s lifestyle, habits and general health. Thus, to give just one example, two people, each 50 years old, in one case suffering from hypertension, diabetes and obesity, will not have the same biological age compared to another person leading a healthy lifestyle.

From this point of view, according to the study “Study on the burden of disease in older people: a challenge for Mexico”, prepared in 2017 by the National Institute of Geriatrics and INSP, older women lose on average 11 years of healthy life; among men, the loss is 8.5 years due to chronic diseases.

It should also be noted that there is a very significant “excess mortality” among men compared to the trends recorded among women starting at age 55; and, more importantly, from the age of 55; which quickly brings us to a society where there are tens of thousands of widowed women who are in many cases alone and without the care and attention needed for their age.

From this perspective, discussions about the pension system and the national care system face, in the short term, the challenge of recognizing that cash transfers, although necessary and in thousands of cases irreplaceable, are not sufficient to guarantee people a decent life. especially when all studies show that these incomes become “out-of-pocket expenses” to cover access to health care or nutrition services that should be guaranteed in other ways.

Building a society for people of all ages requires resources. And therefore, it all depends on how the next administration tackles the decades-delayed task of forging a broad consensus to restore a social pact that cannot begin anywhere other than with deep, comprehensive tax reform that gradually taxes income and wealth, and distributes available resources fairly and efficiently.

Researcher at PUED-UNAM