Political Viewpoint: The Mechanics of Fraud | Jorge Alcocer V.

Political Viewpoint: The Mechanics of Fraud | Jorge Alcocer V.

Jorge Alcocer V.

As a result of the constitutional fraud, with 54.4% of the vote, Morena and her allies could have 373 deputies in the next legislature, equivalent to 75% of the total. The PT, which itself did not get a single deputy with a majority (5.8% of the vote), will have 50 deputies, more than double that of MC, which got 11.7% of the vote. PVEM, which got 9% of the vote, will have 75 deputies, seven more than PAN, which got 18% of the vote. Why is this world upside down, in which parties with fewer votes have more deputies?

Article 54 of the Constitution contains two prohibitions: no party may have more than 300 deputies, and no party may have a number of deputies that, as a percentage of the total number of members of the House, exceeds its percentage of votes by 8 percentage points.

Examples: If a party won 300 majoritarian districts, it would not have the right to participate in the distribution of multi-mandate deputies. If a party gains 42% of the votes, the number of its deputies should not be more than 50% of the total, i.e. no more than 250.

To circumvent these restrictions, the government and Morena have devised and applied a trick consisting of reducing the number of majoritarian deputies who must be formally appointed, so that this is more than compensated for by the appointment of multi-member deputies, and two of His allies also get extra deputies in this way.

The mechanics of the scam are that Morena, by agreement, allocates a significant number of majoritarian districts to two of his allies, in which, if they win, the nominated candidates will allegedly be assigned to the parliamentary group of the party specified in the agreement. Of the 38 deputies with a majority, corresponding to the PT according to the agreement, all win with Morena’s votes. Of the 57 members of PVEM, only three win with votes for this party, Morena transfers his votes to the remaining 54 so that they “win”. With the exceptions, there is a double deception: in the districts “won” by PVEM or PT, the votes are given to Morena, and the majority of those elected will be assigned to the parliamentary group of this party.

By the way, in 2018, as a result of machinations, PES received 56 deputies, although it lost its legal registration, having received less than 3% of the votes.

Morena is in the SEGOB forecast to win 161 constituencies and will need 87 multi-member MPs to win 248 seats, which is 49.6% of the Chamber as a percentage, as she received 43.6% of the effective votes, under the 8-point limit. The two constitutional limits are likely to be respected. Morena itself has fewer than 300 MPs and under the 8-point limit for overrepresentation.

PVEM and PT together will have 125 deputies, which, if added to Morena’s deputies, will give a total of 373, or 74.6% of the Chamber of Deputies. The gerrymandering mechanism thus allows them to circumvent two constitutional restrictions. The governing coalition, which acts as if it were a single party, will have more than 300 deputies and an overrepresentation of just over 16 percentage points, twice what the Constitution allows.

There is another way to count.

In reality, Morena won 253 majoritarian constituencies, representing 50.6% of the total votes in the Chamber of Deputies. Her percentage of the vote was 43.6%, so overrepresentation could reach 8 percentage points, or 51.6% of the 500 deputies. Since Morena already has 253 deputies with a majority vote, Morena should only appoint 5 multi-member deputies, for a total of 258 deputies.

For its part, the PT should be considered with a zero majority of deputies, and the PVEM with 3, and proceed to appoint them multi-member deputies who correspond to their effective percentage of votes, which are 5.8% and 8.9% respectively. The Rough WayPT will have 29 deputies. PVEM, if you add a majority of three votes, will have 45 deputies. The official alliance will have a total of 332 deputies, which is one less than the qualified majority.

This method of interpreting and applying the provisions of Article 54 is consistent with its meaning and purposes.

Since 1986, proportional representation has ceased to be a space reserved for minorities and has become a factor in equalizing the percentage of votes and seats. When a trick mocks or distorts the meaning of a legal norm, making its purpose invalid, the electoral, administrative and judicial organs must act and assert the supremacy of the Constitution.

I submit that, in a harmonious interpretation of Article 54 of the Constitution, the 8-point limitation on over-representation should be applied to the Make History coalition as if it were a single party, for which, without discussing the validity or otherwise of the Coalition Agreement approved by the INE, another legal prohibition should be put in place, namely the prohibition on the transfer of votes between parties. Indeed, this prohibition was established in 2007, and in 2008 the SCJN also recognized it as constitutionally valid.

The transfer of winning mandates is a disguised way of transferring votes. It is also a mockery of voters who, having voted for Morena, find that their votes in the form of seats have been given to the PT or PVEM.

P.S: A dear friend points out to me that the mechanism of constitutional fraud was first used in 2015 by the PRI-PVEM coalition, and that in 2018 and 2021 the INE and TEPJF recognized it as valid. . This is true. But just as a lie repeated a thousand times does not become the truth, so a deception committed three times does not become legal.

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Source: Aristegui Noticias