Israel has opened a window of opportunity for a ground invasion of Lebanon that many in the security establishment have been calling for for some time, as outlined in a plan developed years ago, almost a decade ago, according to the Washington Post, citing former officials and analysts. “A full-scale conflict seems increasingly inevitable as the months since October 7 last year pass. With Hamas trapped in Gaza, Israel’s plan is beginning to take shape,” the US newspaper writes. “The plan has been developed and revised by the military for years. Every time we got close to the camp, there were restrictions. But now it’s all back on track. The question is, what comes next?” explained Miri Eisin, a former military intelligence officer familiar with the events.
The 1,500 or so targets hit in Israeli strikes in Lebanon in recent days are part of detailed and meticulously planned war scenarios, Eisin said. “On October 7, Hamas did what everyone expected of Hezbollah,” he said. Implementation of the plans began a few days later, on October 7, he said. Then it was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who backed down, fearing an overextension of the IDF. Netanyahu was not in favor of an all-out confrontation with Hezbollah, fearing that he would have to fight on two fronts and end up bogged down in another costly and inconclusive war in Lebanon. The risks remain even now, but acting now offers political advantages: more time for the prime minister to rebuild his damaged reputation, delay a possible commission of inquiry into the aftermath of October 7, and divert public attention from the grueling war in Gaza and the conditions of the remaining hostages in the Strip.
Israel also believes that Hezbollah and its backer Iran do not want an all-out war, says Yossi Kuperwasser, a former director of the Israel Defense Forces’ research center. “We were the first to want escalation, and it worked in our favor. We entered a new phase, breaking the rules,” he added, referring to the routine skirmishes on the Israel-Lebanon border that have been ongoing since October 7. Things picked up pace in late July with Israel’s assassination of Fuad Shukr, an operation that triggered, as Eisin puts it, the countdown to war. Attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies have accelerated the pace.
Source: IL Tempo
John Cameron is a journalist at The Nation View specializing in world news and current events, particularly in international politics and diplomacy. With expertise in international relations, he covers a range of topics including conflicts, politics and economic trends.
