When Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in Brussels to present his Victory plan during the European Council, he expected an enthusiastic response from the European Union’s 27 leaders. Surprisingly, he found that his request for a formal “invitation” for Ukraine to immediately join NATO, despite the ongoing conflict with Russia, was treated with skepticism.
Ukrainian opposition to Zelensky’s Victory plan
Before presenting it in Brussels, Zelensky had spoken to the Ukrainian parliament to demonstrate his precise strategy, divided into five points, aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position and ending the war with Russia next year.
However, his proposal failed to gain approval from the nationalist internal opposition, who claimed that the plan was designed and prepared specifically to be rejected by the allies. The possible refusal of the countries supporting Kiev can be used to Zelensky’s advantage to introduce himself to his people and develop a new war strategy, claiming that he has been abandoned by the allies. This is the narrative proposed by the Ukrainian opposition, which for now has no concrete confirmation. In this sense, some signs may have already come.
Let’s take a step back, exactly to October 7, 2024. It is 04.30 am, the flames of a fire in an oil depot in the Russian-occupied city of Feodosia in Crimea are tearing apart the darkness of the night. It is estimated that the explosion occurred after a drone attack. Residents said they heard multiple loud explosions around 4:30 a.m., shortly before the fire started. The Astra Telegram channel later announced that the burned structure was the Marine Oil Terminal, which was previously hit by drones in March.
The dynamics left little room for doubt about who gave the green light to the attack. A few hours later, confirmation came from the Kiev authorities: Ukraine’s missile forces launched an attack on the Feodosia terminal, the largest oil processing facility for the transportation of oil products in Crimea. The Ukrainian attack on Feodosia, the latest in a long series, reportedly resulted in the damage and destruction of 11 storage tanks.
What will be the repercussions of the attacks on Russian refineries on us?
Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries could signal a new phase in the Ukrainian war, financed largely by fossil fuel revenues. Russia is heavily dependent on oil and gas profits; These profits account for almost a third of the country’s total federal revenue in 2023 and 42 percent in 2022. That’s why fossil fuel profits play a crucial role in financing the expensive Russian war machine.
Moscow has to deal with another unexpected event. Russia also fears an imprudent move by Saudi Arabia, which does not want to lose its position as the world oil king. In fact, Riyadh wants to increase crude oil production to respond to failed coordination by other petrostates to cut supply to raise oil prices to around $100 per barrel compared to $70. Reflections of the war in Ukraine. According to what is explained Political According to Alexandra Prokopenko, an economist and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a drop in oil prices of more than $20 at current exchange rates would result in a loss of 1.8 trillion rubles ($20 billion), equal to about 1 percent of Russia’s GDP. ) will result in loss of income.
Meanwhile, Moscow has opened other channels to continue its role as a fossil fuel dealer uninterrupted. Despite Western sanctions following the war in Ukraine, Russia has built a fleet of more than 400 ‘ghost’ ships that now move around four million barrels of oil a day outside the radar range of international authorities and therefore sanctions, generating billions of dollars. An additional $1 a year is generated for Vladimir Putin’s war.
Amid pressure and fear, Ukraine attacked Russian oil fields
So how far can Kyiv go? Ukraine has limited options on whether to strike against Russian refineries, given pressure from the United States and its allies to reduce the repercussions on international oil markets as much as possible.
This is because Ukraine also lives in a world of interdependencies, and if its defense, offensive and military capabilities are completely dependent on the West, the energy consequences, Rie’s Francesco Sassi, a researcher in energy geopolitics and energy security, told Today.it. He also explains that it is mandatory. It should be as limited as possible, otherwise the repercussions on Kiev could be huge. Before I forget, Sassi points out how Russia has improved its ability to prevent such attacks.
Russia’s preventive intensity is therefore evident. Moscow knows that Kiev now has a new target, despite pressure from Washington. Knowing that fossil fuel revenues fuel the Kremlin’s war machine, Ukraine has every intention of targeting Russian oil storage sites. Founding journalist Cristiano Tinazzi believes this War Journalism Training CampWhich one today.it But he explains that future Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and gas storage facilities also depend on Ukraine’s presence and possession of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Drones, which Kiev is working on new models for use in combat, have become the Ukrainian military’s tool of choice to strike and stop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Just like Russian oil and gas storage sites.
Source: Today IT
Karen Clayton is a seasoned journalist and author at The Nation Update, with a focus on world news and current events. She has a background in international relations, which gives her a deep understanding of the political, economic and social factors that shape the global landscape. She writes about a wide range of topics, including conflicts, political upheavals, and economic trends, as well as humanitarian crisis and human rights issues.
