Critical and tense relations between Mexico and the US | Article by Mario Luis Fuentes

Mario Luis Fuentes

Bilateral relations between Mexico and the United States are at a critical juncture, influenced by the political context in Washington and the fallout from the appointment of Ronald Johnson as ambassador to Mexico. Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and toughening stance against organized crime cartels add an additional layer of complexity. In this scenario, Mexican border municipalities face unprecedented pressures caused by both U.S. policies and domestic restrictions to provide basic rights and services.

Donald Trump, during his presidency and in his most recent statements, has reiterated the need to strengthen border security, pursue more aggressive deportation policies, and limit access to asylum systems. These measures will not only increase the number of migrants returning to Mexico under programs such as Remain in Mexico, but will also create a vortex effect in border cities. Municipalities such as Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Reynosa and Matamoros are facing growing numbers of people unable to cross the border, either because they are awaiting asylum hearings or because they have been deported.

This adds to pressure on local capacity to provide housing, access to food, health care and educational services for children from migrant families. Many of these communities no longer have adequate infrastructure and budgetary resources to serve their resident populations, let alone the thousands of migrants on the move or stranded.

Impact of the militarization of the fight against organized crime

Trump’s approach to combating Mexican cartels, including the possibility of designating these organizations as terrorist groups, could have serious consequences.

First, there are experts who are warning of a possible significant increase in violence, especially in Mexico, as US anti-drug operations combined with possible direct intervention in Mexico could exacerbate conflicts between cartels over control of strategic routes and locations . in addition to the possible increase in drug prices due to the introduction of more stringent restrictions on their production and import into the United States.

This will have a direct impact on border towns that are already the scene of violent clashes. The same can worsen in organizations where severe conditions of violence already exist; and the possible spread of hostilities and confrontations to other areas that are already in hot spots or other areas that are characterized by ups and downs in gang behavior.

On the other hand, more internal forced displacement is expected as new actions against cartels could cause more conflict in regions with the highest levels of disputes; and in seeking positioning or “territorial protection,” cartels may seek new or broader swaths of territorial control that will allow them to maintain an operating level that ensures the preservation of their sources and profits.

Another crisis, a humanitarian one, is perceived with renewed vigor. Indeed, the saturation of public services in border municipalities is already alarming, and with the predictable arrival of new waves of deported individuals and families, as well as those who will no longer be able to cross the border, there may be streaks of ungovernability or loss of capacity to operate and control local authorities. According to this logic, there are four critical areas that need to be prepared for this scenario.

Availability of shelter. Currently, migrant shelters have long been either overcrowded or full, and their overcrowding and unsanitary conditions increase the risk of contracting infectious diseases.

Health: The health of both migrants and local residents is at risk, especially in the context of preventable and communicable diseases, both vector-borne and other infectious or viral diseases; In this sense, there are priority sectors, such as the need to guarantee antenatal and pediatric care for migrant families.

Education: Migrant children face barriers to integration into local school systems, which often lack the resources to cope with sudden increases in student enrollment as well as cope with “bureaucratic barriers” such as guaranteeing access to education regardless of documentation or undocumented status , for example, identity documents.

Security: Municipal police forces are insufficient to deal with both the dangers posed by organized crime and the problems posed by the constant flow of migrants. To this extent, the state and municipal police are seriously compromised; while the presence of the National Guard is not a guarantee of adequate security conditions or a guarantee of human rights.

It is clear that Mexico urgently needs to create new and more effective mechanisms of coordination and diplomatic dialogue to mitigate the negative consequences of migration and security policies. This could include increasing funding for shared migrant care programs and strengthening local capacity in border municipalities.

For their part, Mexican municipalities need immediate funding to expand their response capacity, including building new shelters, health centers and schools. This could be done through Mexican federal government programs or international cooperation; and this requires much smarter budget planning to match the situation that is about to happen on both the northern and southern border.

Likewise, given the potential for escalation of conflicts between cartels, a comprehensive violence prevention strategy is needed that includes not only increased police presence, but also new mechanisms for social reconciliation and restoration of social structure.

In this entire scenario, it is imperative that national and international organizations monitor the conditions for ensuring human rights of both migrants and local populations, especially at the border, and avoid violations caused by oversaturation and collapse of services, as has already happened in Russia. tragedy of the Ciudad Juarez immigration station.
To summarize, the appointment of Ronald Johnson and the continuation of Trump’s anti-immigrant policies increase the vulnerability of Mexican border municipalities; They put much more pressure on the border municipalities of southern Mexico, as well as those that experience greater transit of people in mobility.

February and March 2025 could be a nightmare for the country because if what it faces is not carefully addressed, it could lead to serious mistakes which, as has already happened, could cause unnecessary death or suffering for thousands of people. people and families.

Researcher at PUED-UNAM