Isis, the resurrection of the terrorist group between lone wolves and organized cells

In the early hours of January 1, Shamsud-din Jabbar, 42, a former Army veteran, drove a Ford pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing 15 people and injuring 35. Shortly after the attack, Jabbar was killed. in a shootout with the police. A black ISIS flag was found in the vehicle, leading the FBI to classify the event as an act of terrorism. The ongoing investigation suggests that Jabbar may have acted inspired by the extremist group’s ideology and with a level of planning that raises speculation about possible complicity. If this is reconfirmed, it would mean that an ISIS operational cell has been activated in the US. It would be a big problem. If the link to ISIS is confirmed, even as a “lone wolf,” it would still be the deadliest attack on American soil since the Pulse nightclub massacre in 2016.

2024 has been defined as the year of ISIS’s “resurrection.” After years of decline, the group took responsibility for or orchestrated a series of actions in different parts of the world, including an attack in Iran during a memorial ceremony, one on a Catholic church in Istanbul, another during a concert in Moscow. In the United States, intelligence services recently foiled plans to target a Taylor Swift concert in Austria and Election Day in Oklahoma City. The recent geopolitical instability offered the group new opportunities for reorganization, as we already analyzed in these columns a few months ago. It was a trend that could be read between the lines, now reinforced by the collapse of the Syrian regime at the hands of an Islamic group that could in some way be an inspiration. In various international contexts, power vacuums and general preaching spaces have also been created that ISIS seems determined to exploit – think of the Sahel, for example. Furthermore, conflicts like the one in Gaza feed the narrative that Muslim life is devalued by the West, a message that extremist groups use to recruit new converts.

In recent years, the United States has progressively reshaped its attention to combating terrorism, moving towards a strategy focused on competition between great powers such as China and Russia. However, this transition may have left the door open to terrorist threats, both internal and external. Against this backdrop, the attack in New Orleans highlights a crucial challenge for American security, as communities are increasingly polarized and the social context is torn apart. The use of accessible techniques, such as running over, increases the level of risk. The possible link – currently undetectable – with the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck in front of the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas, which occurred almost simultaneously, could strengthen the idea of ​​a coordinated network capable of attacking on multiple fronts. We should also not forget that the Magdeburg episode also raises questions, with the attacker who declared himself Islamophobic but carried out a jihadist-style attack.

The attack on New Orleans, carried out on a symbolic night like New Year’s Eve, represents a disturbing warning. Attackers appear to choose not only highly visible targets but also contexts that exemplify Western lifestyles contrary to their puritanical outlook. Events like this at least highlight ISIS’s ability to exploit global communication to amplify its impact, reaffirming its relevance at a historical moment when it seemed to have lost strength. As investigations continue, the challenge is to balance the fight against terrorism with the management of strategic priorities, without neglecting the importance of a preventative strategy capable of addressing the roots of radicalization. All of this adds complexity to the threat surrounding the West. The return of terrorist incidents in the United States, the several cases of foiled attacks in Europe, are a clear reminder: we cannot back down from this dossier. Security measures will also be implemented in Italy, especially considering this is the Jubilee year – an event that could attract the attention of radical groups.