As the war progresses, the definition of victory remains obscure

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said late last month that Ukraine can “win” the war against Russia and that the Biden administration “will do all it can” to support that goal, was less outspoken in a congressional hearing this week.

“We hope this eventually becomes a sovereign state with an incumbent government capable of defending Ukrainian land,” Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee. But Austin and other senior officials refused to express their views on what this government would look like and what its territory would be.

The oligarch’s attempt to establish peace diminishes, although it protects him from sanctions.

Whatever the outcome, the administration quickly abandoned claims that went beyond the end of the war with the still dominant Ukraine. When President Biden said in late March that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” he and the White House were quick to explain this as a “moral outrage” on the part of the president, not a foreign exchange policy. of regime in Moscow.

When Austin pointed out last month that the US was looking for a “weakened” Russia, administration officials quickly added that the target was specific to the military conflict and that Putin would consider invading another country twice. .

The Ukrainians gave a clear definition of victory. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that their goal is to restore full territorial integrity, withdraw the Russians in the south and east from recently claimed territories and, more recently, from Crimea and parts of eastern Anatolia, which has been annexed by Moscow in 2014. donbass A territory occupied simultaneously by Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists.

“I was elected president of Ukraine. “The important thing is the victory of Ukraine. And in the victory of Ukraine, I mean what belongs to us. “

Serious negotiations with Russia will only begin when Moscow withdraws its troops or is expelled from the occupied territories after the invasion began on February 24. He also listed the return of refugees, Ukraine’s accession to the EU and the persecution of Russian troops. War crimes leader as elements of any postwar environment.

“I think we shouldn’t underestimate the views of the Ukrainian people, who will never accept anything,” said the European diplomat. Even as Russia-Ukraine talks, now suspended, continue, “Zelensky cannot resolve the Russians politically” unless they contain the general elements expressed by the Ukrainian president. The diplomat was one of several American and foreign officials who spoke on condition of anonymity on internal calculations.

Some individuals within NATO have set more specific goals than others. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went beyond Austin’s chances of victory and promised “Ukraine will win” in an emotional video speech to Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday.

British Foreign Minister Liz Truss was even more specific. You told Mansion House, London’s annual foreign policy center last week, that Britain had “doubled” aid to Ukraine. “We will continue to move faster to oust Russia from all of Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas,” she said, describing the Russian forces as “cancerous growth”.

Ukraine’s military success has so far surprised and delighted the administration. Before the war, the administration had released an unprecedented amount of confidential information showing the accumulated Russian forces they occupied. However, this did not reflect the expectations of the US intelligence community that Ukraine would give up Kiev in three to four days, according to him.

NATO’s unity and rapid response, with the United States and allied forces on NATO’s eastern border and their weapons in Ukraine, was pleasant, especially as Ukrainian forces not only captured Kiev, but also ousted the Russians from the north.

The current stage of the challenge is likely to be much more difficult and longer. Russia appears to have withdrawn, taking most if not all of her territory, concentrating its forces along its border in the eastern part of the country. There, his current control over key areas is likely to alleviate the logistical problems he is experiencing around Kiev. In the southeast, Russian forces destroy the remaining opponents on the Black Sea coast.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, half of its pre-war army of 126,000, are facing them tens of thousands of miles west of the Russian lines. The US military estimates that Russia’s tactical goal is to send more Ukrainians from the southern and northeastern border area to retreat and encircle the Ukrainians. Across the plain, farmland, great land wars rage, artillery and air strikes and long range armored battles.

The western artillery that will invade Ukraine will replace the war with Russia

In response, the United States and its allies are sending heavy artillery, air defense and surveillance equipment, armed drones and armored vehicles to the Ukrainians. Biden has asked Congress for $ 33 billion for emergency weapons and other support, in addition to the large sums already sent.

“The change in Russia’s goals, of course, shows that all of these efforts have had a strong impact,” said a senior administration official. “But as we have said many times, this conflict is likely to be long and difficult, and the next few months will be critical, so Congress needs to act quickly.”

The strength of the United States and the Allies will be crucial. “One of the most pressing issues that Ukraine needs to focus on” now “is maintaining community unity and support within and within Ukraine,” said another US official.

“Public support on the battlefield is the main variable of the outcome” and “we must continue to do persuasive work,” he said. “Equal disappointment in failure or stalemate” and success on the field “equal unity”.

As the war continues, some European governments may face shortages of heating fuel, in addition to gas and consumer goods, especially if delayed next winter. According to Biden, the perception of Russia as a loser, or even a loser, in the face of her own economic difficulties could influence the November elections and the perception that her administration has “lost” Ukraine.

Some are more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of continuing or even making early progress in the current stage of the war. Retired former Supreme Allied Commander-in-Chief, Air Force General Philip Breedlove, said it was too early to tell, but there were “good signs” that the Russians won’t be able to do everything they want. East. Some “very smart people” said they believed Russia would “complete” its next operation in two to four weeks, effectively reducing its pressure on military capabilities.

This will open the door to a broader offensive by Ukraine to recapture the territory occupied by Russia.

“So we have confirmation of what the profit looks like,” Breedlove said. “Other people around the world are starting to expect that they can really recapture all of Donbass and finally drive Russia out of Crimea,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s real right now, but it really exists.”

The Pentagon does not want to publicly consider the possibility of claiming all Ukrainian territory.

“We are cautious when it comes to advancing the war, especially when it comes to Ukraine’s capabilities and efforts,” said a senior US defense official. “We have an obligation to talk to them about what we are providing, but we never want to provide too much information that would compromise their operational safety or complicate their operation. It is a balance that we try to maintain every day “.

As for the victory administration’s explanation, the European diplomat said: “I think the uncertainty is not accidental.” “Sometimes if you are very specific about your goals, it is easier to stop them. … I always want to protect Americans on this because if I were American I would be more careful because they are superpowers, the Russians care more about them.

Asked Wednesday whether the US would be happy if Ukraine agreed to keep Russia in the Crimea and the east, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki echoed the administration’s motto: “The Ukrainians will decide what the outcome will be. As for them ».

Moreover, Psak said, Russia has already lost by failing to achieve its original goals – most, if not all, of Ukraine or the split of NATO.

Another US official said otherwise. “Many people have read a lot of Austin’s comments,” the official said, adding that the United States was “trying to strategically defeat Russia from the start, which means that Russia cannot project such a power.” The neighbors again ”.

At the end of the day, this official said: “Accountability can take many forms. Ukraine should outline any peace agreement, but depending on how things turn out in the end, we also have the means to revoke or remove it in terms of export sanctions and controls.

Olivier Knox and Clive R. Wutson Jr. to this report.