Possible severe storms rumbling in the Washington area in the late afternoon

The National Weather Service (80% probability) is likely to announce severe thunderstorms soon, and we expect more thunderstorms to appear on radar as the front approaches.

These storms can be hit or miss (so not everyone can see them), but some can be powerful. The sunlight we saw after the afternoon rain helped to upset the balance of the atmosphere.

“The strongest of these storms can damage wind and hail,” wrote the meteorologist.

Stay tuned for more updates on posted schedules and hurricane development.

original article

The turbulent weather that will spread to the Washington area on Monday will face a severe cold front that will result in severe thunderstorms or thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can erupt in the area from noon until evening, until drier and cooler air arrives at night.

The storms will dissipate and are likely to be more numerous and intense near Interstate 95 and the northeast.

Strong storms, isolated tornadoes possible today in the northeast

The National Weather Service says, “Destructive winds are the main threat, but strong hailstorms and isolated hurricanes are possible.” He said. “The best chance of a severe thunderstorm will be 2:00 pm to 7:00 pm. Isolated flooding is also possible “.

The storm can occur in two shifts, the first between 14 and 16 hours and the second between 4 and 7 hours.

The Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has placed most of our area in the “advanced” risk zone from level 3. However, the computer models show areas north and northeast of Washington and Baltimore that may have more component mixes. during bad weather.

Storm danger at a glance

Total storm coverage: Scattered (impact or throw), mostly along I-95 and east

Hurricane arrival time:

The approximate arrival time is for the first hurricane cycle which can be widely dispersed; Maybe in an hour or two the second storm cycle will arrive. Storms may be more numerous along I-95 and east for a second round.

Everything is clean: 6:00 pm West Interstate 95; 19:00 Ring road area; 8:00 PM Annapolis to Southern Maryland.

Threats:

Precipitation potential: Average 0.2 to 0.5 inch; Locally possible up to 1 inch.

Discussion

A strong combination of a low surface pressure zone and a very strong reactive flow pattern increased the risk of stronger storms in the Central Atlantic and Northeast countries on Monday afternoon.

The weather map for 2pm (shown below) shows that the DMV is in the warm part of the low pressure zone, which means that the southerly wind will intensify and bring in warm, humid air. This will help destabilize the atmosphere on Monday. The cold front in our territory advances in the late afternoon, contributing to the emergence of hurricane clusters and lines.

The jet stream configuration (below) highlights an unusually energetic body or drop south of the plane’s core, which also strengthens in the afternoon. A very strong wind belt from the west will spread over the region and strengthen our winds, increase wind speed and increase wind height. The “dynamic lift” caused by the inlet vacuum will work with the unstable air mass to create a diffuse and diffuse storm.

We think the storm will come in two waves, with the first group heading to our western suburbs as early as 2pm. Mason Dixon line. There are already severe thunderstorms out there, and the Hurricane Prediction Center estimates the risk of wind damage could be as high as 45 percent (25 miles from anywhere), an unusually high cost for the Northeast.

The risk of wind damage in a straight line is 30% lower, while the risk of a hurricane is 5%. In fact, with strong winds from 16:00 to 19:00 we can shoot better with a second wave. Model guidelines recommend drawing a dense cell line exactly along I-95 during this time window. It will also get a few more hours of atmosphere to destabilize and increase the wind shear to even higher values.

However, the cell nature of hurricanes in the second group may be more diffuse than diffuse, and the more volatile air may be over the bay and further east. If the storms of the first wave extend further south than the models suggest, they could consume some of the energy that would have accumulated for the second wave.

Monday morning it was very cloudy, the rains were already over. While this is somewhat intermittent in the afternoon, delaying the sun’s warming by a few hours will reduce the time it takes to destabilize the atmosphere. However, cool enough air moving in strong winds (related to depression) can compensate somewhat and the air will be moderately unstable.

It is recommended to observe the weather conditions from 2am to 7pm today. On radar, storms will be organized into fast-moving arc clusters and segments, possibly with several resident supercells or rotating storms.