According to experts, the departure of the last Ukrainian soldiers from the Azovstal complex in Mariupol is mainly of symbolic significance. Since last night, soldiers have been evacuated by bus to areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists, but it is not yet clear when everyone will leave the complex.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said last night that “Ukraine needs its living heroes”, and the military operation is over, according to the Ukrainian army. ‘It doesn’t matter strategically,’ said retired General Mart de Kruif. “Mariepol was already in the hands of the Russians. The connection between Donbass and Crimea was already there.”
The news of the departure of the army was relieved in Kiev:
“Zelensky had already given up,” admits Frans Osinga, professor of war studies in Leiden. “For him, the strategic goal has already been achieved.” He sees that the two countries approach the news differently. “It feeds stories on both sides.” Thus, according to both experts, Zelensky can rightly say that the soldiers of the complex managed to occupy the Russians for a long time.
On the other hand, President Putin can show that Mariupol is now definitively in Russian hands. Experts think the Ukrainian military can also succeed with its humanitarian treatment. Among the military are members of the ultra-nationalist Azov battalion, called Nazis by Putin.
De Kruif: “The Russian government will undoubtedly use them for propaganda purposes. To show that even his worst enemies are treated humanely.” As a result, according to De Kruif, Russians can see other things they are accused of as anti-Russian propaganda. “This is an opportunity to fend off allegations of inhumane treatment elsewhere in the country.”
Both De Kruif and Osinga say that the role of the soldiers still present in the compound ended about two weeks ago. What is certain is that they occupied the Russian troops for a while, so that they could not be deployed elsewhere.
For Osinga, this shows how success can be achieved with a small number of defenders. “Normally you need a ratio of three attackers to one defender to make a profit in a fight. In Azovstal and urban areas you need about six to ten men per defender.”
Russia’s lower house, the Duma, still wants to ban prisoner exchanges. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said “Nazi criminals” should not be bartered and should be prosecuted.
And what will happen now that the complex is in Russian hands is still unclear. Osinga: “What they are going to do with Mariupol is more important. They want to use it as a transit port, but then the area would have to be completely cleared. They are working on that now.”
In any case, Osinga believes that the Azovstal complex cannot be used as a factory in the short term. “The complex is so damaged that you probably won’t be able to use it for years. For this, Russia has to invest, but that depends on the outcome of the war.”
Source: NOS
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