Russia-Ukraine War, Putin’s Curse: All Anti-Kremlin Leaders in Pain

Russia-Ukraine War, Putin’s Curse: All Anti-Kremlin Leaders in Pain

It was last March 26 when US President Joe Biden, at a rally in Warsaw, let slip that the West should not limit itself to helping Ukraine defend itself from Russian invasion, but directly aim at “regime change”. “. In Moscow.

In short, resistance as the key to dismissing Vladimir Putin. 104 days after what was then reduced to a “gaffe”, Biden’s departure is set to become the most classic of own goals. Because the Kremlin Tsar is still firmly in place as long as the pieces of the Western puzzle that oppose him don’t fall. The farewell step by Boris Johnson, the European leader who most stood up for Kiev, is in some ways the sum of all the strengths and weaknesses of democracy.

Open, inclusive, tolerant of dissent. But at the same time complicated, unstable, obstinate. Even in one country, Great Britain, normally used to the stability of governments. Admittedly, BoJo’s parable has little to do with the conflict in Ukraine. On the contrary, it is the child of the inexperience of a leader who believed himself to be untouchable, despite the scandals and gaffes he continually made. And who, in a kind of retaliation from Dante, was crippled by the same party he unscrupulously cast, plotting and stabbing when necessary.

THE ECONOMIC BURDEN OF CONFLICT

The war, however, has much to do with the difficulties of Johnson’s colleagues who, at these times, find themselves in more or less similar difficulties. Emergencies were believed to cement people around their governments. The confrontation between Moscow and Kiev, on the other hand, is having the opposite effect. Probably because, as the months go by, empathy for Ukrainians is evaporating, supplanted by concerns about the economic waste of the conflict. However, they are still far from fully developed. The winds of crisis that are blowing under Mario Draghi’s government can be read every day in the daily newspapers.

But the Italian prime minister is in good company. Joe Biden is probably the worst offender. Yesterday the approval rating developed by statistician Nate Silver by the portal FiveThirtyEight showed an impressive number: the US president reached a new record of negative approval. His work is appreciated by only 38.6% of Americans. To find a worse number after 534 days of administration, one has to go back to 1946, with Harry Truman at 33%. Biden hoped, with his lead in the Ukrainian crisis, to fix the mess in Afghanistan. So far, however, the goal has not been put to good use. The midterm elections in November were seen as a nightmare by Democrats, who are now certain to lose control of both houses of Parliament. While the country is questioning the president’s real health and his party is studying a system to convince him to leave the scene in 2024, avoiding a reappointment that would risk turning into a resounding failure.

THE ELECTIONS IN EUROPE? VLADIMIR’S VICTORY

He has already faced the elections of Emmanuel Macron. And, without a presidential confirmation that should not be underestimated (no one had since Chirac’s time), the legislative elections handed over to the Elysee’s tenant a parliament without a majority. On the contrary, the extremes, Mélenchon and Le Pen were awarded. These are the leaders who have focused most attention on the price the population is paying due to rising energy prices and the disruption of trade relations with Moscow. Macron will not be disarmed – the French system protects the president’s powers even in the absence of e-mail numbers. His second term will inevitably be marked by greater attention to domestic affairs. To the Kremlin’s obvious satisfaction. Who, in turn, was the first to comment, with jubilation, on Johnson’s fall yesterday. It’s a kind of curse, from Putin. Since the war broke out, albeit indirectly, he has won every election held in Europe. As in Hungary and Serbia, where his associates Viktor Orbán and Aleksandr Vucic remained in power. The first put ibastoni on the EU wheel every time a sanctions package against Moscow was supposed to be approved. The second maintained daily air connections from Belgrade to Russia, while all other European countries closed Kremlin airspace. Finally, there is the case of Germany. Where the Russian invasion not only shed new light on the long years in the Chancellery of Angela Merkel, accused of not having foreseen Moscow’s expansionism, but also clipped the wings of Olaf Scholz’s new government. More than the chancellor’s indecisions in the early stages of the conflict, it was the economy that weighed. Germany is as dependent on Russian gas as and more than Italy. Putin knows this and likes to interrupt supplies repeatedly, citing reasons for maintenance. Discontent grows and in May, in elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (the most populous German Lander), Scholz’s socialists suffered the worst defeat in history. Not only that: the shelving of the Nord Stream 2 project greatly disappointed the poor and uninhabited Lander of former Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, who were hoping to get that growth boost that they always lacked with the pipeline implementation. Perfect example of how Draghi’s phrase – “peace or conditioners” – was a sudden simplification of a terribly more complicated scenario.

WEAKER LEADERS AND IMMOBILIZED EU

The current weakness of Draghi, Scholz and Macron, however, has a considerable side effect: it delays the reform of the European institutions of which the three leaders wanted to become standard-bearers and which was consolidated above all in the demolition of the dogma of unanimity in decision-making processes. of the Union. This is also a paradigmatic example of the bureaucratic slowness of democratic systems. Let me be clear: no envy of regimes or so-called “democracies”. But only the demonstration of how much time passes in favor of Putin in the Ukrainian crisis. He, by consent or by compulsion, has whatever he wants at his disposal. Its western antagonists, on the other hand, do not. They’re all expiring. And for some, the countdown may have already begun.

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Source: Iltempo

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