Women and poor vote for Lula, men and rich vote for Bolsonaro

Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party, could win Brazil’s presidential election in the first round, on October 2, but Jair Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, has reason to believe he will at least be the race to second place. round, day 30. These are two of the conclusions of the week with the most polls – a whopping five – in the past four years in the country. In it, Lula has 44% to 47% of the voting intentions. Bolsonaro, from 32% to 37%. However, geographic regions, socio-economic divisions, religious beliefs and the gender of voters are considered to determine the outcome.

On the gender issue, it is no coincidence that Janja da Silva, the wife of Lula and Michelle Bolsonaro, has taken to the field in recent days to draw the female votes. And speaking of the first lady, she, a staunch evangelical, associated the tenants of the Planalto before her husband with Satan, provoking a response from Lula – “he who is possessed by the devil is Bolsonaro” – and a new slogan in his campaign – “Bolsonaro uses God, God uses Lula” – the beginning of a kind of electoral “holy war”.

With less following among the poorest than his rival, the president has in recent weeks relaunched Auxílio Brasil, a program to help needy populations. And while Lula favors the campaign in the southeast, where Bolsonaro was born, he traveled through the northeast, the former president’s stronghold and home region.

The poll by Ipec (formerly known as Ibope) illustrates these differences by concluding that Lula, the center-left candidate, is ahead of women, the youngest, the poorest and those living in the northeastern region. Bolsonaro, far right, ranks better among evangelicals and those with monthly household incomes above five minimum wages or two to five minimum wages. He is cited as the candidate by 37% of men and only 27% of women against 46% of women who vote for Lula.

However, two states are considered fundamental in all elections: São Paulo, because it is the most populous, with 22% of the population, and Minas Gerais, because it normally has estimated results of the national elections (and because it is the second most populous). Among Paulistas, Lula wins 43% against Bolsonaro’s 31% and among miners he has a 13 point advantage, 42% to 29%.

In summary, Ipec, which interviewed people in 130 municipalities in Brazil between August 12 and 14, 2000, with a margin of error of two points up or down and a confidence level of 95%, puts Lula in the lead with 44%. 12 points ahead of Bolsonaro, who scores 32%. Former minister and governor Ciro Gomes, of the center-left PDT, has 6% and Senator Simone Tebet, of the center-right MDB, has 2%. [ver infografia ao lado]. Since Ipec’s last survey was released in December, when, for example, the possible candidatures of former Bolsonaro minister Sergio Moro or the former governor of São Paulo, João Doria, there is no comparison term.

With the exception of blank and invalid votes, Lula appears within the poll’s margin of error with the possibility of first-round victory, at 52%. Bolsonaro scores 37%, Ciro gets 7% and Tebet does not get further than 2%. Vera Lúcia, of the far-left PSTU, reaches 1%, dodging the pack of secondary candidates. And in the spontaneous poll, in which respondents are not given names of candidates, Lula has 41%, Bolsonaro 30% and Ciro Gomes 3%. The others are not mentioned – nor Tebet.

On the other hand, in a second round of the main candidates, Lula adds up to 51% and Bolsonaro 35%, with 14% saying to vote blank/zero or prefer not to react. In another item surveyed, 77% of respondents said they have already decided who to vote for.

Datafolha, the latest of the polls released on Friday, also reveals a comfortable advantage for Lula over Bolsonaro – of 15 points – but smaller than June 18 – and May 21 – leading to hopes for the presidential campaign . With 51% of the valid votes, Lula is still likely to be elected on October 2; if a runoff is needed, on the 30th, the former president scores 54 points and Bolsonaro 37.

Bolsonaro’s best performance is in the PoderData poll, just seven points behind Lula – 37% to 44%. The current president rose two points from the previous survey at the end of July, and the former head of state rose one point. Ciro and Tebet, at 6% and 4%, are technically within the margin of error of two points in a survey conducted by robots contacting 3,500 voters by phone from 331 municipalities in the 27 federated units.

In the second round simulation, Lula has 52%, Jair Bolsonaro 38%, the whites/nulls reach 7% and those who don’t know 3%.

At Genial/Quaest, the two favorites grew simultaneously when they compared their performance in the previous poll: Lula, at 45%, and Bolsonaro, at 33%, both add one point to a month ago’s poll. In the second round simulation, Lula has 51% against 38% for Bolsonaro.

Two thousand people were personally interviewed by Genial/Quaest between 11 and 14 August. The margin of error is two percentage points. The research has 95% certainty. That is, if 100 surveys were conducted, at least 95 would yield the same results within this range.

The former president, in turn, rose in voting intentions, according to the survey commissioned by BTG Pactual conducted by FSB Pesquisa: The new survey attributes 45% of the voting intentions to him — in the latest survey, he had 41% of the vote wishes. The current president, on the other hand, remained at 34%.

The increase in Lula’s voting intentions may be related to André Janones’ withdrawal from Avante, who had 2% and declared support for the candidate in the meantime between the two surveys.

The poll also showed that Ciro grew from 7% to 8% and Tebet fell from 3% to 2%.

2000 people were interviewed between the 12th and 14th, and the margin of error is two points, with a 95% confidence interval.

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Author: Joao Almeida Moreira, So Paulo

Source: El heraldo