Cubans across the nation are suffering severe economic hardship as an effective oil embargo imposed by the United States government in January halts basic services.
Electricity on the island now returns for only one or two hours a day, leaving families waiting in extreme summer heat while basic food supplies remain scarce.
The economic crisis has deepened since the pandemic plunged Cuba into instability, with daily routines reduced to long lines for bread, overcrowded buses, and exit visas. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has referred to the national survival effort as creative resistance, but public endurance has been pushed to its breaking point.
Cuba is a Caribbean island nation governed by a communist single-party system since 1959.
Political Scenarios and Transition Plans
Uncertainty over the nation's future has produced several potential outcomes. Analysts note possibilities ranging from the collapse of the communist government to a negotiated democratic transition supported by Washington, or even a US military intervention creating a protectorate similar to recent developments in Venezuela. The most probable outcome remains a prolonged wait, with ordinary citizens bearing the cost.
Rosa Maria Paya, the exiled daughter of murdered pro-democracy activist Oswaldo Paya, described the Cuban government as the Berlin Wall of our era. At the same time, members of the Cuban-American community have updated plans for a democratic transition, though with minimal coordination with residents on the island.
Stalled Negotiations and Foreign Sanctions
During much of the spring, diplomatic signals indicated the Trump administration might accept a partial compromise. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe showed openness to allowing certain communist officials to stay in power, provided Havana relaxed state control over the economy, freed political prisoners, and severed security ties with foreign adversaries of the US.
The prospect of an agreement receded in May after Cuban authorities refused Washington's demands for major leadership changes. In response, strict sanctions forced numerous foreign companies to leave the island. The resulting deadlock fueled suspicions that the US government intended from the start to inflict economic pain to spark social unrest.
Summer has historically brought political turmoil to Cuba. Protests erupted during the 1994 Maleconazo following the post-Soviet economic collapse, and nationwide demonstrations occurred on July 11, 2021, during the coronavirus pandemic. Demonstrators currently participate in daily casserolazos, banging pots and pans to protest conditions. A government television broadcast recently displayed a slide by mistake that revealed official anxiety over a potential social explosion.
Historical Unrest and Mass Migration
Growing public anger may not trigger a collapse similar to Eastern Europe in 1989. The fall of communist regimes in 1989 required elite divisions and organized opposition movements with broad public support. In Cuba, the state security apparatus remains fully intact, official repression limits opposition reach, and mass emigration acts as a safety valve, with up to two million Cubans leaving the country since 2020.
Without an internal collapse, observers suggest external action could be pursued. The prosecution of Raul Castro in May over his involvement in the 1996 shootdown of two US-Cuban civilian aircraft provides a potential legal justification for an operation similar to the arrest of Venezuelan leaders.
Any direct US intervention would recall the events of 1898, when a four-year US military occupation began that created a Cuban republic closely tied to American economic and political interests.
External Intervention and Asset Sales
A full military occupation is considered unlikely by most experts. US President Donald Trump has publicly spoken of executing a friendly takeover of the island. Secondary sanctions targeting major hotel chains and state partners have devalued Cuban state assets, potentially allowing American firms to acquire property at reduced prices.
Raul Castro's grandson, who holds no official government post in Cuba, stated that the country remains open for business and expressed willingness to negotiate directly with President Trump. His potential role as a transitional figure, similar to Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez, could face opposition within the White House and from Secretary of State Rubio. Under such a scenario, the US Secretary of State could function as an economic viceroy managing business assets with close partners.
Diplomatic Impasse and Regional Priorities
Immediate systemic changes remain uncertain because Cuban leaders have shown little inclination to yield without guarantees of a safe and honorable exit route. At the same time, Washington faces strategic constraints.
Although reports indicate the CIA recently formed a new task force focused on Cuba, a military escalation risks entangling the US in an extensive nation-building effort larger than Venezuela. Furthermore, the Trump administration remains focused on ongoing conflict with Iran.
Both governments remain trapped in a cycle of escalating and relaxing tensions, waiting for the other side to make concessions. However, time is running out for the Cuban population, as citizens cannot delay meals, medical treatment, or personal choices indefinitely. While governments can afford to prolong the impasse, ordinary Cubans cannot.
This report incorporates analysis by Michael J. Bustamante, professor of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami and author of Cuban Memory Wars: Retrospective Politics in Revolution and Exile.
