Turkish seismologist Ovgun Ahmet Ercan has ruled out the risk of a mega earthquake striking Istanbul following dozens of weak tremors recorded off the coast this week.
Ercan said that while a full-scale disaster is highly unlikely to follow the current wave of seismic activity, underground tremors with a magnitude between 5 and 5.5 cannot be ruled out.
The recent tremors occurred in the Sea of Marmara near the Princes Islands, with none exceeding a magnitude of 3.5, according to the former Istanbul Technical University lecturer, who was speaking to RIA Novosti.
Seismologists at Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, known as AFAD, registered at least 40 underground tremors in the Sea of Marmara over a 12-hour period on Thursday, August 20.
Seismic Activity in the Sea of Marmara
Ercan noted that between 3,500 and 4,000 micro earthquakes with a magnitude of less than 4 are recorded in the Sea of Marmara every year. He explained that experts cannot state that a large-scale earthquake will follow the latest wave of minor tremors.
The ongoing tremors are taking place on a section of a fault line that was formed following the major earthquake of 1999, Ercan said.
The Sea of Marmara is an inland sea in northwestern Turkey that connects the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea. The Princes Islands, located within the sea, lie just off the coast of Istanbul, Turkey's most populous city. The region sits along major geological fault lines and experienced a catastrophic magnitude 7.6 earthquake in 1999 that devastated parts of northwestern Turkey.
Fault Line Risks and Predictions
Although tremors measuring magnitude 5 to 5.5 could still occur in the area, Ercan clarified that conditions for a more powerful disaster with a magnitude of 6 to 7 do not exist there.
He added that the potential source of such a major earthquake, as predicted by many seismologists, is located on a fault line 25 kilometres off the coast, opposite the districts of Kucukcekmece and Silivri in western Istanbul.
Kucukcekmece and Silivri are heavily populated coastal districts situated on the European side of Istanbul along the Sea of Marmara. AFAD serves as the central Turkish government body tasked with monitoring seismic threats, disaster prevention, and emergency response operations across the country.
Diverging Views on Future Disasters
The assessment follows earlier warnings from another Turkish seismologist, Naci Gorur, who stated that residents of Istanbul face the risk of a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher in the coming years.
