Markus Thielen, the head of cryptocurrency analysis firm 10x Research, has expressed skepticism over predictions that Bitcoin can reach a price of $1 million per coin, calling such expectations mathematically unrealistic.
Thielen assessed that capital inflows from spot exchange-traded funds, institutional investment funds, and retail investors remain far too small to increase Bitcoin's total market capitalization by tens of trillions of dollars.
He stated that driving a substantial price surge by 2030 would require trillions of dollars in new capital. For this reason, 10x Research remains far less optimistic than market commentators who predict extreme price milestones.
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, while spot exchange-traded funds allow investors to trade exposure to the asset on standard stock exchanges. 10x Research is a financial analysis firm specializing in digital assets.
Psychological barriers for retail investors
Thielen argued that as the price of Bitcoin climbs higher, retail investor interest may actually decline. He explained that buyers often feel a psychological urge to possess a full single unit of an asset rather than fractional shares.
Many potential buyers ask themselves whether it makes more sense to purchase a new car or spend an entire year of wages to acquire a single coin, according to Thielen. He added that investors prefer owning a complete Bitcoin rather than a tenth or a hundredth of one, comparing fractional ownership to buying only a piece of a painting.
Realistic targets and market cycles
Investors should not anticipate a rapid recovery similar to previous market cycles, Thielen warned. Because Bitcoin now operates at a much higher market capitalization, far greater sums of money are required to move its price upward.
Thielen suggested that a rally back to $100,000 per coin would represent a major accomplishment in the current environment. He expressed doubt that the cryptocurrency could quickly surpass its record high of $126,000 within the coming year.
While Thielen previously affirmed that Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle remains relevant, he noted that broader forces now exert a heavy influence. Political developments, liquidity shifts, United States election cycles, and decisions by central banks now play a key role in shaping price movements.
