The National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon officially declared an active El Niño state in Ecuador on Saturday afternoon.
The decision was reached on the afternoon of August 29, 2026, after scientific analysis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions recorded throughout August confirmed that all four criteria required under national protocols had been met.
Official notice of the declaration was published on the X account of the Oceanographic and Antarctic Institute of the Navy, known as Inocar, alongside a technical report detailing marine data.
The scientific committee clarified that the official status does not mean the South American country will immediately experience intense or widespread rainfall, as atmospheric precipitation patterns have not yet consolidated across the national territory.
Ocean warming across monitoring regions
Data reviewed by researchers highlighted pronounced thermal anomalies across key monitoring zones in the Pacific Ocean. In the Niño 3.4 region, an equatorial zone used by meteorologists to track central Pacific conditions, sea surface temperature anomalies reached approximately plus 2.6 degrees Celsius.
Closer to the South American coastline, the Niño 1+2 region located off Ecuador and Peru recorded weekly temperature anomalies approaching plus 4 degrees Celsius. Offshore from continental Ecuador and surrounding the Galápagos Islands, sea surface temperatures showed anomalies between plus 2 degrees Celsius and plus 3 degrees Celsius.
The El Niño phenomenon is a recurring climate pattern driven by periodic warming of tropical Pacific waters, which alters weather systems globally and impacts coastal weather across South America. Regional monitoring bodies track changes in ocean surface temperatures to evaluate environmental risks for coastal communities.
Thermal accumulation extends deep below the ocean surface as well. At the El Pelado monitoring station off Santa Elena, researchers recorded a surface water temperature of 26.8 degrees Celsius, representing an anomaly of plus 2.6 degrees Celsius, while water at a depth of 44 meters registered an anomaly of plus 5.4 degrees Celsius.
Sea levels and downwelling Kelvin waves
Sea level height markers across Ecuador also confirmed significant oceanic shifts. Monitoring stations along the continental coast recorded sea level anomalies ranging between 28 and 33 centimeters above normal levels.
In the Galápagos archipelago, an island group located in the eastern Pacific Ocean off continental Ecuador, sea levels rose by approximately 29 centimeters.
The committee report attributed the elevated water levels to the propagation of warm downwelling Kelvin waves. These deep ocean waves transport substantial reserves of thermal energy eastward across the equatorial Pacific toward the South American coast.
Combined ocean temperature readings and sea level anomalies have kept the Ecuadorian El Niño Phenomenon Index, known as Iefen, firmly within the threshold designated for an active El Niño event.
Atmospheric coupling and rainfall forecast
Researchers confirmed that coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is already established. Persistent westerly wind anomalies and increased convective activity continue across sections of the central Pacific, signaling a direct atmospheric response to elevated ocean surface warmth.
Despite the official declaration, widespread and continuous heavy rainfall has not yet materialized across the country. Over the coming weeks, meteorologists expect sporadic rainfall, concentrated primarily in northern sectors and the interior of the Litoral region.
The Litoral region comprises Ecuador's western coastal plain between the Pacific Ocean and the Andes mountains. While some upcoming rain episodes in the area could reach moderate intensity, scientists have not detected signs of persistent or generalized storms.
The final quarter of 2026 will serve as a crucial period for evaluating how the climate pattern develops. During October, November, and December, the Litoral region and the Galápagos Islands begin their seasonal transition into the annual rainy period.
Observations over those months will determine whether ocean and atmospheric coupling consolidates on a regional scale, providing clearer indication of rainfall volume and location. According to the committee, current projections indicate El Niño could reach very strong intensity between late 2026 and early 2027.
