The area of Europe affected by wildfires will almost triple by 2100 under a high-emissions climate scenario, according to a computer modeling study. Scientists warn that unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions could expand the annual burned area across the continent by 193 per cent, reaching 20,463 square miles (53,000 square km) per year.
The projected expansion would affect large swathes of Western and Central Europe alongside the Mediterranean, where a record-breaking fire season is already taking place. Researchers also found that global warming will spark fires in parts of the continent that have previously been unaffected by major blazes.
Under a high-emissions scenario where nations fail to reduce pollution, global temperatures could rise 3.6°C (6.5°F) above pre-industrial levels. Scientists caution that higher temperatures and drier conditions will make fires both more frequent and more widespread in the coming decades.
Dr Kirsten Thonicke, a co-author of the study and researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, highlighted the strain already facing emergency services across the continent.
"The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," Dr Thonicke said. "With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size."
Projections for High-Emissions Scenarios
The research team utilized a suite of computer models to simulate how future climate shifts will alter wildfire patterns across Europe. The simulations evaluate how changes in weather conditions influence vegetation growth, humidity levels, wind speed, and lightning strikes.
These environmental variables were combined with forecasts of changing land use, including deforestation for agricultural expansion, as well as shifts in human population density to calculate total affected areas.
Professor Thomas Hickler, a co-author of the study based at the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research in Frankfurt, emphasized the role of human activity in driving wildfire trends. Professor Hickler noted that "almost all" of the rise in wildfires over recent decades stems from human actions, and stated that "all" future increases will be directly attributable to greenhouse gas emissions.
Mechanisms Driving Wildfire Growth
The study attributes the projected increase in burned land primarily to a rise in "extreme fire weather," caused by longer and deeper summer droughts. Greenhouse gas emissions raise global average temperatures, leading to extended periods of severe heat and dryness.
However, the researchers discovered that wildfire damage will increase even if global society acts immediately to curb emissions. In a "low emissions scenario" where global warming is successfully capped at 1.8°C (3.2°F), the area burned each year is still projected to rise by 39 per cent by the end of the century.
Professor Hickler explained that this continued increase under lower emissions is caused by "warming in the pipeline," a result of the climate system's delayed response to atmospheric changes.
"The climate system reacts slowly," Professor Hickler said. "Most of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by more greenhouse gases goes into the ocean, and it takes a long time until the coupled ocean-atmosphere system gets into a new system state that is in equilibrium with the greenhouse gas forcing."
He added: "Furthermore, we have sparked other processes that create positive feedbacks, such as the increasing permafrost melting releasing CO2 to the atmosphere."
Record Fire Seasons Across Europe
The warnings arrive as European nations contend with one of the most destructive fire seasons on record. Across the European Union, wildfires have already burned 2,340 square miles (6,060 square km) of land, an area more than two and a half times the 20-year average for this time of year.
A new wave of wildfires has struck Greece, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, and Croatia, forcing thousands of residents and holidaymakers to evacuate. Hundreds of people were evacuated from a beach resort in northern Greece and a village in southwest France, while firefighters in Galicia, Spain, continue to battle widespread blazes.
In Belgium, emergency crews fought a rapid blaze last week in the Hautes Fagnes natural park near the German border. Data from the European Forest Fire Information System confirmed it is the largest wildfire in Belgium's recorded history, destroying over 3,000 hectares of land and surpassing a 2011 fire that burned nearly 1,400 hectares.
The United Kingdom has similarly logged its worst wildfire season on record. Firefighters across the country have responded to more than 1,132 blazes in 2026, exceeding the previous annual record of 1,017 wildfires set last year, despite four months remaining in the calendar year. Extreme wildfire risk led the UK government to activate its national emergency alert system.
Factors Behind Increasing Fire Weather
Scientists identified several key factors driving the growth of "fire weather" days across the continent, particularly in southern Europe:
- Hotter summers: Rising average temperatures dry out forests, grasslands, and scrubland faster, making vegetation easier to ignite.
- Less moisture: Extended dry spells cause plants to lose water, turning vegetation into highly flammable fuel.
- Stronger winds: High winds fan flames, spread burning embers over long distances, and hinder containment efforts.
- More heatwaves: Frequent and intense heatwaves create prolonged windows of extreme fire risk.
- Drier vegetation: Small sparks from lightning, agricultural machinery, or discarded cigarettes trigger rapid blazes.
- Climate change: Global warming increases the frequency of hot, dry, and windy atmospheric conditions.
Role of Fire Management and Preparation
Despite the grim projections, the study highlights that effective preparation and fire management could substantially reduce potential damage. Models show that continued improvements in management strategies have the potential to cut burned areas by 92 per cent in a 1.8°C warming scenario and by 72 per cent in a 3.6°C scenario.
However, researchers warn that these mitigation estimates might prove overly optimistic if worst-case conditions materialize.
"If Europe increases investment in wildfire management, our projections show that this can make a significant difference," Professor Hickler said. "But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down, and we do not know yet where this point is."
