The Labour government will take 40 years to meet its NHS waiting list target at current treatment rates, according to a new analysis of official health service data.
Ministers have promised to ensure 92 per cent of patients wait no longer than 18 weeks from a GP referral to hospital treatment by March 2029. Hitting that target requires the waiting list in England to fall from 7.27 million to around 3.5 million, representing a reduction of 114,000 patients every month.
However, official NHS England figures show the waiting list fell by an average of just 7,962 patients per month over the past year despite record funding. At that pace, clearing the required backlog will take four decades rather than the three years remaining under the government's deadline.
The National Health Service (NHS) provides publicly funded healthcare in England, managing hospital referrals, emergency departments, and planned operations such as hip and knee replacements.
Stuart Andrew, the Conservative shadow health secretary, criticized the government over the findings. "40 years to meet Labour's own NHS waiting list target shows just how far they are falling short," Andrew said. "Labour are more interested in headline grabbing rather than bringing down waiting lists. Patients need treatment and action now. Labour must stop pretending its failing waiting list plan is working and get a grip on the crisis in our NHS."
March targets and hospital sprint funding
The health service removed 110,000 patients from waiting lists in March alone, enabling then health secretary Wes Streeting to report that the NHS met its interim target of treating 65 per cent of patients within 18 weeks by the end of that month.
Hospitals achieved that figure after receiving temporary "sprint" funding to perform extra operations. Hospitals also received millions of pounds in financial bonuses for removing patients from waiting lists without treatment, citing reasons such as patient death, switching to private care, or no longer requiring treatment.
Health policy experts warned at the time that the temporary measures were unsustainable. Over the following two months, waiting lists increased by 172,000 patients.
Sarah Woolnough, chief executive of The King's Fund think tank, said the recent rise demonstrates the fragile nature of earlier progress. "The Government met its interim target for 18-week waits in March, but waiting lists rising by almost 170,000 since then demonstrates how fragile this progress has been," Woolnough said.
"The NHS continues to face record levels of demand, compounded by the ongoing series of heatwaves," Woolnough added. "The way the 65 per cent target was originally hit could also account for this trend. Post March, 'sprint' funding has dried up meaning there are fewer resources available to NHS trusts to cut waiting lists. We warned at the time that the NHS could not sprint its way to a lasting solution and taking this approach to secure a sustainable fall in waiting lists would prove challenging."
The King's Fund is an independent healthcare charity and policy research organization that monitors NHS performance in England.
Hospital wait times and diagnostic metrics
In June, the latest month with available data, 65.8 per cent of patients began hospital treatment within 18 weeks of referral. The number of patients waiting more than a year to start treatment rose slightly from 104,734 to 105,711. Those facing waits of 18 months or longer fell from 1,144 to 1,099.
Emergency departments recorded 2.5 million attendances in July during two heatwaves, setting a record for monthly visits. Despite the demand, 75.4 per cent of emergency patients were seen within four hours, up from 75.0 per cent in June.
The number of patients waiting more than 12 hours from a decision to admit to actual admission stood at 47,438, down from 49,466 in June.
Emergency department demand and corridor care
An average of 2,300 patients received corridor care in emergency departments each day in July, while an additional 728 received corridor care elsewhere on hospital wards, creating a daily total of 3,028 patients. The figures track patients kept in non-standard treatment areas for at least 45 minutes.
Corridor care occurs when treatment takes place outside clinically appropriate settings, where patients lack privacy, access to food, water, or toilets, and where lights and noise cannot be reduced to allow sleep.
Health Secretary Yvette Cooper thanked NHS staff for "their extraordinary efforts over this hugely challenging summer" and urged healthcare leaders to prepare for high summer demand.
"Despite the extreme heat and record demand that NHS staff have faced, more than three quarters of patients were seen within four hours in A&E, a record 2.65million diagnostic tests and checks were carried out in a single month, and the waiting list has fallen in the month of June for the first time since 2011," Cooper said. "But today's figures also show how much of an additional burden is placed on the NHS during periods of extreme heat, and I have made clear that we must start planning for summer pressures in the NHS in the same way we do for winter."
Dr Ragit Varia, president-elect of the Society for Acute Medicine, stated that year-round pressures now affect hospital operations. "From permawinter to permaheat, there is no longer a quiet season for the NHS," Varia said.
Helen Morgan, health spokeswoman for the Liberal Democrats, also criticized the government, stating that "Labour isn't working for our NHS."
