Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is struggling through a difficult 2026 Major League Baseball season after dominating his first two years in professional baseball.
The 24-year-old former Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award winner has seen his earned run average double while his trademark 102mph fastball speed has dropped, drawing online criticism and speculation over his form.
Skenes was expected to be untouchable in Major League Baseball, with many analysts anticipating the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers would eventually engage in a bidding war worth hundreds of millions of dollars whenever he leaves Pittsburgh.
Off the field, the pitcher is frequently accompanied by his girlfriend, 23-year-old social media influencer Livvy Dunne, who attends his games when not filming the movie Baywatch in Los Angeles.
However, after blitzing his way to National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2024 and winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2025, Skenes has appeared ordinary throughout much of the 2026 campaign.
He has been removed early in start after start, with his top pitch speed dipping to 96mph, while the Pirates have fallen from playoff contention into last place in the National League Central division.
The sideshow surrounding his season intensified on Wednesday in Florida, ahead of Pittsburgh's series against the Miami Marlins, when beach photographs of a shirtless Skenes walking with Dunne prompted online commentary about his physical conditioning.
Insider assessment of injury fears
Former Major League Baseball pitcher Curt Schilling has attributed Skenes' struggles to mechanical issues resulting from his early-season workload, while Pirates manager Don Kelly suggested the player is chasing an impossible standard set by his dominant career start.
Addressing speculation that a secret physical issue or elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery could be the underlying cause, an insider close to Skenes offered a detailed clarification of the situation.
"Paul's recent troubles have been happening for several reasons, but if injury is one then both Paul and the team are very tight lipped and keeping any of that information a secret," the insider said.
"But most are thinking he isn't hurt because if he was, either himself or the Pirates would have shut him down to protect him for the future," the source added.
Skenes has continued to take the mound every fifth day for Pittsburgh despite the club having little remaining postseason hope, a schedule the franchise would unlikely risk if its star pitcher were physically impaired heading into arbitration years.
Pittsburgh Pirates performance and statistics
The insider indicated that the overall performance of the Pittsburgh franchise is a primary factor behind the pitcher's statistical decline.
"Another reason for Paul's downturn is that his team is hot garbage," the source said. "They are last place, the team doesn't protect him with any offense or good defense, so he is being wasted."
"When he does well, his team's play screws him and when he has a bad outing, it is looked at as even worse, because his team provides no help to bail him out," the insider explained, adding that "that might be the main culprit for all his problems."
Statistically, Skenes' ERA has risen to 3.96 this season, more than double his combined 1.96 mark recorded across his first two seasons in Major League Baseball.
The Pirates currently hold a 58-64 record and sit 16.5 games behind the division leaders in the National League Central standings.
Pitching mechanics and early season workload
Three-time World Series winner Curt Schilling previously suggested that the pitcher's problems stemmed from altered mechanics following his appearance at the World Baseball Classic in March, where the former Air Force service member represented the United States.
The insider supported the view that mechanical adjustments and schedule changes impacted Skenes' preparation for the regular season.
"His control, delivery and attention to detail has been a little off, and he has to figure out how to get back to his mechanics that made him so dominant in the last few years," the source said.
"Also starting early with the World Baseball Classic altered his usual set up and preparation to the season. Add that with all the talk getting in his head, he just needs to figure out how to reset and not worry about things and just get back to the fundamentals," the insider added.
Contract status and future contract prospects
Skenes remains under team control with Pittsburgh through 2029 before becoming eligible for free agency in 2030, making speculation about his future market value premature.
Observers anticipate potential interest from high-budget franchises by 2030, including the New York Yankees, where Dunne owns a $3 million apartment in Manhattan's West Village, or the Los Angeles Dodgers in California.
"He just has to get the doubt and voices out of his head," the source noted. "Baseball players and especially pitchers are fragile; he is now having his turn with adversity, but he is looking to figure out the kinks and make sense of it all sooner than later."
Relationship scrutiny and upcoming fixtures
Addressing online claims regarding Skenes' relationship with Dunne, whom he met while attending Louisiana State University before dating for several years, the source dismissed suggestions that his personal life contributed to his form on the field.
"He puts the same attention into his game as he always has, and his relationship is not to blame," the source said, adding that "he was so good, so fast that of course people are going to be worried that he is a little off, but many are thinking that this is just a bump in the road."
The insider emphasized that Dunne does not act as a distraction during games or training sessions.
"Paul wants to ball out in front of Livvy, he wants to appear as the man in front of her at all times, but especially on the baseball field," the source said. "So, she isn't to blame and she isn't a distraction to him, because he always wants to look good for her."
"Things aren't working out as they have been the last few years and he has to figure out why. He has to make adjustments," the insider added. "It might take a few more starts to turn it around, but he is adamant to do what he needs to do and find the root of the problem so people stop talking about it."
Skenes is scheduled to make his next start on Sunday when the Pittsburgh Pirates face the Boston Red Sox.
