Morningstar DBRS has kept Greece's credit rating at BBB while upgrading the country's outlook from stable to positive, a move that raises expectations of a future upgrade if the country's public finances keep improving.
The agency singled out the trajectory of Greece's debt-servicing costs. According to its analysis, Greece stands out among nine eurozone countries as the only one where interest expenses are projected to be lower in 2030 than in 2025, with the gap estimated at 0.2 percentage points.
The shift to a positive outlook is effectively a signal about the agency's likely next move. Continued fiscal improvement and a further decline in public debt could create the conditions for Morningstar DBRS to upgrade Greece's rating in the future.
Debt and growth forecasts
DBRS said the European Commission expects gross public debt to fall from 143.5% of GDP in March 2026 to 134.4% by the end of 2027, as the economy's growth momentum is expected to stay relatively strong, with significant primary surpluses continuing to be recorded.
The agency said the Greek economy has so far coped well with the shock of energy prices, with tourist arrivals continuing to rise sharply in the first half of this year. On an annual basis, the Commission forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.
DBRS said fiscal results have improved significantly in recent years, as the state budget has benefited not only from strong economic growth but also from structural reforms that increased tax compliance and, as a result, widened the country's tax base.
Election risk seen as limited
While the government has adopted some expansionary measures this year, including income tax cuts, fiscal performance is expected to remain strong. The Commission forecasts the government's primary surplus at 4.0% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, compared with 4.9% in 2025.
DBRS acknowledged that current polling points to a potentially difficult period for forming a government after next year's elections, but said it views political risk as limited because there is broad consensus among the main political parties on core policy issues.
The agency said Greece's BBB rating rests on the improved financial condition of the domestic banking sector, the country's credible policy framework, and its membership of the European Union and the eurozone. Successive Greek governments, it added, have implemented key reforms that strengthened governance, improved the business environment and supported debt sustainability.
Remaining weaknesses
DBRS said Greece's ratings are still constrained by a public debt ratio that remains high, comparatively low labour productivity, and the small size of its economy, which leaves it exposed to external shocks. It added that external imbalances, such as the economy's chronic current account deficit, weigh on the credit profile.
Debt refinancing risks are largely mitigated by a very favourable debt structure and large cash reserves, the agency said. The weighted average maturity of general government debt stood at 18.3 years in June 2026, reflecting the large share of debt made up of favourable-terms loans from the official sector, such as the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility, with very long maturities. General government cash reserves stood at 31.1 billion euros, or 12.4% of GDP, and 100% of Greece's debt is at fixed interest rates after hedging. DBRS said these factors support its positive qualitative adjustment to its assessment of the "debt and liquidity" component.
Over the long term, maintaining Greece's debt sustainability depends mainly on the country's ability to sustain primary surpluses and steady nominal GDP growth, the agency said, as official-sector debt is gradually replaced by market-funded debt, exposing Greece to greater market volatility.
Tourism dependence and productivity
DBRS said that while the Greek economy benefits from comparatively strong growth momentum, it still faces significant structural challenges. Sustaining the recent rise in investment activity over the medium term will likely require continued large inflows of foreign capital, given the economy's low rate of domestic savings.
The small size of the economy also leaves Greece vulnerable to external shocks, particularly in tourism, which remains a key sector for the services-based economy. Travel services accounted for a very large share, 89%, of total net services exports in 2025, up from a 73% share in 2019.
Although labour productivity in Greece has improved in recent years, it remains significantly below the EU average. According to Eurostat, nominal labour productivity per person employed in Greece stood at only 67% of the EU-27 average in 2025, measured in purchasing power standards. DBRS said it believes structural reforms implemented in recent years have strengthened Greece's competitiveness and will likely support productivity growth over the medium term, factors that explain its positive qualitative adjustment to the "economic structure and performance" component.
Other agencies to follow
The calendar of ratings reviews for the Greek economy continues on September 18, with decisions due from Moody's and Scope Ratings. Greece is currently rated BBB by Scope, while Moody's rates it Baa3.
Standard & Poor's review is expected on October 23, followed by Fitch on November 6. Both agencies currently rate the Greek economy at BBB.
