The diplomatic thaw between Greece and Turkey has effectively ended, marked by a qualitative shift in 2026 that has seen the return of armed fighter jets and aerial engagements in the Aegean Sea.
While the situation has not returned to the levels of 2022, which saw 11,258 violations of Greek airspace, the near-complete de-escalation of recent years is over. The shift began in 2025, when Turkish aerial activity started to return, logging 225 airspace violations.
The two NATO allies experienced a period of improved relations following the devastating earthquakes in Turkey in 2023 and the signing of the Athens Declaration later that year. However, none of their fundamental disputes were resolved, including disagreements over the continental shelf, exclusive economic zones, the 12-mile territorial waters limit, Turkey's standing threat of war, the demilitarization of islands, grey zones, and airspace.
First stress test in Kasos
The first real test of the detente occurred in the summer of 2024 near the Greek island of Kasos. Turkish warships appeared in an area where the Italian vessel Ievoli Relume was conducting seabed surveys for an electrical interconnection between Greece and Cyprus.
Since that incident, both Athens and Ankara have shifted from a diplomacy of avoidance to actively asserting their positions. Greece has moved forward with Marine Spatial Planning, the designation of marine parks, energy exploration, and attempts to implement the Cyprus cable link.
In response, Turkey has implemented its own marine planning, issued NAVTEX maritime safety warnings, declared its own marine parks, and more systematically promoted its Blue Homeland doctrine. Ankara has also maintained its maritime memorandum with Libya and sought to expand its influence there.
Economic interests and future risks
The renewed friction comes at a time when Turkey wields greater regional weight and strategic autonomy, while Greece has significantly bolstered its military deterrence and international alliances. Neither side is willing to leave the other's moves unanswered; Athens fears inaction will solidify Turkish claims, while Ankara refuses to let Greek actions become the norm.
The most likely scenario for the coming years is a long-term, controlled tension involving NAVTEX issuances, airspace violations and periodic incidents, coupled with open communication lines to prevent mistakes from escalating into crises. The primary risk lies in a specific project or exploration that forces both countries to decide on the spot how far they are willing to push their claims.
However, the billions required for energy infrastructure, cables, hydrocarbon exploration and European funding do not align with geopolitical uncertainty. These shared economic interests could force a pragmatic understanding, potentially leading to a deal without a comprehensive agreement. This could involve practical rules for specific projects, the possible referral of maritime delimitation, and a freeze on other disagreements.
A permanent state of uncertainty risks causing severe delays and making major energy projects and investments more expensive. A genuine crisis would immediately damage tourism, financial markets, borrowing costs and investments in both countries.
