Morocco and Algeria have accelerated a military arms race in North Africa, matching each other with purchases of advanced fighter jets and air defence systems.
Morocco recently acquired F-16 fighter jets and the Skylock Dome, an Israeli anti-drone system, to reinforce its airspace and operational capacity.
Algeria responded by strengthening its air force with Russian Su-35 fighter jets.
The political and military agenda in the region is dictated by mutual fear and a strict logic of mutual deterrence, according to the news outlet Qantara.
Hicham Mouatadid, a Moroccan researcher, warned that the fragile balance of power could lead to an open conflict if control of the situation is lost or international mediation efforts fail.
Dispute over Western Sahara
The rivalry is rooted in historical grievances and conflicting claims over territorial sovereignty, particularly regarding the Western Sahara.
The Western Sahara is a territory on the Atlantic coast of North Africa that has been the subject of a long running dispute since Spain withdrew in 1975.
Morocco considers the territory fundamental to its institutional and historical legitimacy.
Algeria maintains firm support for the Polisario Front, a nationalist movement seeking independence for the territory.
This division has prevented strategic integration in North Africa. Each country interprets any arms agreement signed by the other as a direct existential threat, perpetuating a cycle of mutual distrust.
General mobilization bill
Military alert levels increased further in April when the Algerian government announced a general mobilization bill.
The legislation goes beyond the merely symbolic, serving to unite the Algerian population while sending a clear message to geopolitical rivals.
Hostile rhetoric has become a permanent feature in the institutions of both countries, which complicates diplomatic channels.
Analysts say mediation by the United States can calm the situation temporarily, but is insufficient to create a lasting solution.
They say peace in the region requires genuine political will and unprecedented courage to address regional security, rather than the continued accumulation of weapons.
