Rui Costa and Jaques Wagner lead the race for Bahia's two Federal Senate seats, according to a Parana Pesquisas poll released on Thursday.
In the simulated election scenario, which allowed participants to choose up to two candidates, former cabinet chief Costa secured 46.3 percent of voting intentions. Senator Wagner followed with 34 percent.
Candidate Joao Roma of the Liberal Party placed third with 27.3 percent of voter support, while Angelo Coronel of the Republicans recorded 25.1 percent.
Several other candidates registered in the single digits. Professora Delliana of the Socialism and Liberty Party stood at 3.8 percent, followed by Marcelo Carvalho of the Sustainability Network with 2.2 percent. Carlos Sodre of Mobiliza gathered 1.1 percent, Marcelo Santtana of Christian Democracy reached 0.9 percent, Gregorio Gould of Popular Unity received 0.6 percent, and Marcelo Millet of the Workers' Cause Party recorded 0.4 percent.
Voters intending to cast blank or spoiled ballots, or who declined to support any candidate, made up 11.9 percent of the electorate. A further 7.1 percent of respondents stated that they were undecided or preferred not to express an opinion.
Senate contest in Bahia
Both leading candidates represent the Workers' Party, known in Brazil as the Partido dos Trabalhadores or PT. The party has held the governorship of Bahia since 2007. Rui Costa served as governor of the state from 2015 to 2023 before taking office as chief of staff in the federal government. Jaques Wagner preceded Costa as Bahia governor from 2007 to 2015, and currently represents the state in the federal upper house.
Elections for the Federal Senate in Brazil follow a staggered schedule. Every four years, either one-third or two-thirds of the 81 seats in the upper chamber come up for election. In cycles where two seats are contested, electors cast two separate votes to choose their representatives. Each of Brazil's 26 states and the Federal District sends three senators to the National Congress in Brasilia to serve eight-year terms. The top two vote-getters in the final tally each secure a seat in the chamber.
Survey methodology and registration
The survey was conducted by the polling firm Parana Pesquisas, which interviewed 1,400 eligible voters across the state of Bahia between September 21 and September 23. The data was gathered through in-person, face-to-face interviews with participants.
The research team established a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95 percent level of statistical confidence. Parana Pesquisas financed the entire polling study using its own budgetary resources rather than receiving financial backing from an outside political client.
In accordance with Brazilian electoral legislation, the survey was officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court, the national tribunal known as the TSE. The filing was approved and recorded under registration code BA-00759/2026.
