President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has taken a substantial lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Bahia in a 2026 presidential runoff poll.
Data released on Monday by research firm Real Time Big Data gives Lula 64 percent of total voting intentions in the north-eastern state. Flávio Bolsonaro, who represents Rio de Janeiro in the federal Senate, registered 28 percent of voter preferences, leaving the incumbent with an isolated numerical advantage.
Voters who chose a blank or spoiled ballot accounted for 5 percent of respondents in the prompted question. An additional 3 percent of electors in Bahia said they did not know or declined to answer.
Presidential Runoff Simulation
Bahia is the fourth most populous state in Brazil and historically represents a vital electoral stronghold for Lula and his leftist Workers' Party, known as the PT. Solid support across north-eastern states played a critical role in Lula's previous presidential victories, including his return to office in the 2022 general election.
Lula, who governed the country between 2003 and 2010 before beginning his third term as president in January 2023, remains the party's central national leader. Flávio Bolsonaro is a prominent lawmaker for the conservative Liberal Party, known as the PL, and is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was defeated by Lula in 2022.
Survey Methodology and Registration
Brazilian presidential elections operate under a two-round system. A second-round runoff takes place between the top two candidates if no contender secures more than 50 percent of valid votes during the initial ballot. Polling companies frequently test simulated second-round contests to measure relative strength across key states.
Real Time Big Data interviewed 1,600 voters throughout Bahia between September 23 and September 26. The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points upward or downward, with a confidence interval of 95 percent.
The research was formally registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, known as the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, under protocol BR-02319/2026. Under Brazilian election regulations, polling organizations must register their field surveys with electoral authorities before making the findings public.
