The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation expects Russia to produce and export less natural gas this year than previously forecast, according to a draft government document reported by Reuters.
The downgraded projections come as economic and political ties between Moscow and Western nations continue to sever over the war in Ukraine, alongside European Union plans to fully stop buying Russian gas next year.
Under the revised forecast, Russian natural gas output is projected to reach 683.1 billion cubic meters this year. That represents a drop of 5.3 billion cubic meters from the previous estimate made in May, although the total remains above the 662.7 billion cubic meters produced in 2025.
Liquefied natural gas export forecasts
Russian seaborne liquefied natural gas exports are projected to rise to 35 million metric tons this year, up from 30.3 million metric tons in 2025. However, the updated figure is 5.3 million tons lower than earlier predictions, with future growth expected to proceed at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled into a liquid state for shipping on specialized vessels across maritime trade routes. Unlike traditional pipeline infrastructure that ties suppliers directly to specific regional markets, seaborne LNG allows energy exporters to redirect cargoes globally to buyers operating on spot markets or under long-term contracts.
The revision follows reports earlier this month that Russia reduced its 2026 oil production forecast to a 17-year low. Russian authorities also adjusted fuel export projections for both this year and next year as the ongoing military conflict impacts energy operations.
European pipeline gas trade plunges
Calculations by Reuters show that Russian gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44 percent last year to 18 billion cubic meters. The figure represents the lowest export level since the mid-1970s, driven by the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. At its peak in 2018 and 2019, Russian pipeline deliveries to Europe reached approximately 180 billion cubic meters per year.
Kremlin officials stated this month that European countries were harming themselves by purchasing expensive gas on spot markets rather than relying on cheaper Russian supplies. Moscow noted that it remained ready to resume European gas deliveries, including through the undersea Nord Stream pipeline system, where one line remains intact following underwater explosions in September 2022.
The Nord Stream system consists of twin offshore pipeline routes laid across the seabed of the Baltic Sea to transport gas directly from Russian production hubs to Western Europe. The European Union, a political and economic block of 27 European nations, has sought to reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels through coordinated energy transition strategies and alternative supply arrangements.
European import bans and winter reserves
In October 2025, the Council of the European Union approved a European Commission proposal for a complete ban on Russian gas imports starting January 1, 2028. The measure took initial effect on January 1, 2026, while incorporating a transitional period for existing delivery contracts.
Despite import restrictions, European nations imported a record volume of Russian LNG in the first quarter of 2026 since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to German news outlet ntv. Reporting by Reuters noted that European Union efforts to achieve independence from Russian oil and gas have faced obstacles as the 27-nation block enters winter with exceptionally low gas reserves.
