Russian wheat exports are forecast to fall by 3.2 million tonnes during the July 2026 to June 2027 agricultural year following persistent shipping disruptions in the Azov and Black Sea basin.
Agricultural consultancy SovEcon reduced its total wheat export forecast for the current marketing season to 41.4 million tonnes, Russian news agency Interfax reported.
The company also revised downwards its export projections for other major grain crops. SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian barley exports by 0.2 million tonnes and reduced its estimate for maize shipments by 0.6 million tonnes. Despite the broader reductions, analysts expect wheat deliveries abroad to remain stable in September at two million tonnes.
SovEcon is an independent agricultural research and consulting firm based in Moscow that specializes in tracking grain and oilseed markets across Russia and the Black Sea region. Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat, supplying agricultural commodities to global buyers across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. In international grain trading, the agricultural year runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following calendar year to align with Northern Hemisphere harvesting cycles.
Shipping obstacles in the Azov and Black Sea
SovEcon analysts stated that navigation in the Azov and Black Sea basin is unlikely to return to normal operating conditions within the coming weeks. However, the consultancy indicated that a partial recovery in shipping operations remains possible by late autumn.
The Azov and Black Sea basin serves as the strategic heart of Russia's agricultural export infrastructure. Major shipping hubs along these waterways handle bulk cargo vessels carrying millions of tonnes of wheat, barley, and corn annually. Navigation through the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea allows dry cargo ships to access global maritime trade routes passing through the Bosporus Strait.
The lowered forecast follows reports that Russian wheat shipments to Turkey fell to their lowest level of the year. In July, Turkish expenditure on purchasing grain from Russia dropped by 60 percent compared with the amount spent in June.
Supply difficulties to Turkey intensified during mid-summer due to recurring Ukrainian drone strikes against dry cargo vessels operating in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Turkey is traditionally one of the primary export destinations for Russian wheat. Turkish flour mills and food processing plants rely heavily on grain imports from across the Black Sea to meet domestic demand and to produce flour and pasta products for export to developing nations.
Although SovEcon projects September wheat shipments to remain flat at two million tonnes, overall export volumes for the 2026 to 2027 season will depend on whether shipping conditions across the Azov and Black Sea basin stabilize later in the autumn.
