The policy of calm waters between Greece and Turkey has ended after Ankara launched massive airspace violations across the Aegean Sea using mixed formations of fighter jets and drones, according to Greek geopolitical analyst Ilias Psychogios.
Writing for Greek financial news portal Capital.gr on August 20, 2026, Psychogios stated that the recent aerial intrusions represent an organized strategy by Turkish military commanders rather than isolated incidents during the summer heatwave.
Greece and Turkey, both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have maintained long-standing territorial and maritime boundary disputes in the Aegean region, where recent diplomatic attempts to stabilize bilateral relations were known as the calm waters initiative.
Trilateral defense pact and marine parks
According to the analysis, the diplomatic shift began when Ankara signed a trilateral defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Shortly after concluding the tripartite defense agreement, Turkish officials announced plans to create designated marine parks across the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
The proposed marine park boundaries enclose the island of Kastellorizo, directly challenging Greek sovereign rights in surrounding maritime waters.
Kastellorizo, also known as Megisti, is a small Greek island located in the easternmost portion of Greece, situated approximately two kilometers off the southern coast of Turkey.
Psychogios noted that repeated airspace violations in recent days were designed by Turkish military planners to establish faits accomplis on the ground.
Historical parallels with Imia crisis
The commentary drawn direct parallels between current Turkish military maneuvers and the 1996 Imia crisis in the Aegean Sea.
During the 1996 standoff, a dispute over a salvage operation on two uninhabited islets escalated into a confrontation between Greek and Turkish forces before international diplomacy de-escalated the threat of war.
Psychogios wrote that while Greek defense officials used the calm waters period to procure military armaments, Turkish forces used the same timeframe to reorder their military deployments in the region.
Diplomatic posture toward Washington
On diplomatic strategy, Psychogios criticized Greek policymakers for adopting a doctrine of invisible presence aimed at remaining under the radar of the new United States administration led by Donald Trump.
He argued that the transactional diplomatic style of Trump does not reward nations that seek to avoid notice, but instead favors partners that demonstrate military strength and offer clear strategic value.
In geopolitical realism, maintaining a passive stance risks leaving Greece invisible and disadvantaged during international negotiation.
Asymmetric costs of drone intercepts
Operationally, the analysis highlighted a major financial and tactical imbalance facing Greek air defense forces.
The Turkish air force has deployed low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles in volume, prompting the Greek air force to scramble expensive manned fighter jets to intercept them.
Psychogios wrote that chasing disposable drones with manned fighters inflicts heavy financial expense, excessive airframe wear, and physical exhaustion on Greek pilots.
He called for an immediate change in military doctrine toward deploying domestic anti-drone systems and multi-role unmanned aircraft capable of surveillance, target acquisition, power projection, and direct strikes without exhausting fighter flight hours.
Defense dome and tech integration
Psychogios argued that shooting down an intruding Turkish drone would establish a clear military deterrent, citing a historical precedent where a Turkish military aircraft was shot down with the loss of a pilot without provoking an official response from Ankara.
Modern warfare is increasingly determined by algorithm speed, machine vision, data analytics, armed drones, and non-missile interception systems.
He urged Athens to establish a national defense dome incorporating electronic warfare, directed energy systems, and sensor networks through partnerships with the private deep-tech sector rather than relying on slow state procurement processes.
Control of the Aegean Sea will ultimately depend on rapid automated response systems and rapid technology adoption, as Turkish authorities respond primarily to clear demonstrations of power.
