Ukraine will not experience fuel shortages in the second half of August because importers contracted large volumes in advance, fuel expert Dmytro Lioushkin said.
Lioushkin, the founder of the Prime group of companies, told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN that while sea routes remain insufficient, alternative supply lines have effectively offset maritime logistics bottlenecks. He noted that road transport from Romania is operating smoothly, with a substantial number of fuel tankers arriving to maintain supplies across the border.
Supply channels across Ukraine's western border have also expanded, with shipments of American and Dutch diesel fuel entering the country. Lioushkin explained that these deliveries have significantly diversified Ukraine's fuel supply countries, helping to stabilize overall market availability.
Southern transport and river bottlenecks
The supply situation remains more complex in southern Ukraine, where fuel imports rely heavily on shipments coming along the Danube River from the Romanian port of Constanta. Lioushkin pointed out that low water levels on the Danube have severely restricted river barge traffic, describing the shallow conditions as nearing an ecological disaster and making it unclear whether weather or Russian military actions pose the greater obstacle.
Although fuel deliveries to southern regions remain relatively slow, supplies continue to move. To improve the situation, logistics operators dispatched additional fleets of road fuel tankers to transport fuel overland into southern Ukraine. Constanta, Romania's primary Black Sea port, serves as a crucial transshipment hub for Ukrainian energy imports.
Autumn rains and market demand
Market conditions are expected to normalize fully with the onset of autumn rainfall, according to Lioushkin. He explained that precipitation will produce a dual stabilizing effect on the fuel market by simultaneously increasing river delivery capacity and curbing domestic consumption.
Rains will raise water levels in the shallow Danube, allowing river transport from Romania to increase delivery volumes. At the same time, wet weather will slow down agricultural field work, as heavy farming machinery cannot operate in muddy fields during rainstorms. Ukraine's agricultural sector is one of the country's largest consumers of diesel fuel during seasonal harvesting operations.
Lioushkin estimated that the fall in agricultural activity during rainy periods will reduce nationwide fuel demand by approximately 10 to 15 percent. Concurrently, overall fuel deliveries into Ukraine are projected to rise by roughly 10 to 15 percent, a combined shift that he said will be sufficient to balance the market and resolve current supply difficulties.
Fuel price trends and record highs
The stabilization outlook comes after diesel prices at Ukrainian filling stations reached a new historical record in late July. Average retail prices for diesel fuel across the country climbed to almost 92 hryvnias per litre at the end of July.
Lioushkin previously told UNIAN that retail diesel prices in Ukraine could approach 100 hryvnias per litre if strikes on Russian oil refineries continue. Market analysts and industry experts monitor fuel prices closely as Ukraine balances import logistics against international energy market fluctuations.
