Bitcoin market activity remains too weak to signal the start of a new bull cycle despite a price surge of more than 30 percent in August 2026, according to cryptocurrency analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Trading volumes across major digital asset exchanges are down 70 percent compared to October 2025, when Bitcoin set its previous record high, making talk of a new market cycle premature.
Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant who operates under a pseudonym, noted that Bitcoin trading volumes in August 2026 hovered near levels last observed in September 2023. The analyst stated that recent price gains have not been matched by a corresponding rise in exchange trading activity.
CryptoQuant is a digital asset research firm that tracks on-chain data and cryptocurrency exchange flows. In financial markets, a bull cycle refers to an extended period of sustained price growth accompanied by high trading volume and strong buying interest from investors.
Since October 2025, spot trading volume on Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, dropped from 198 billion dollars to 44 billion dollars. Gate recorded a decline from 53 billion dollars to 14 billion dollars, while Bybit saw spot volumes drop from 41 billion dollars to 17 billion dollars over the same period.
Spot trading involves the direct purchase or sale of digital assets for immediate delivery, serving as a primary measure of direct retail and institutional demand. Major centralized exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and Gate host the majority of global cryptocurrency transactions, making their volume figures a key indicator of market health.
Signs of market stabilization
Binance did register a slight month-on-month improvement in August 2026, with spot trading volume rising by approximately 1.6 billion dollars compared to July 2026.
Darkfost assessed that this modest increase could indicate market stabilization following a prolonged decline in participant interest. However, the crypto expert noted that price growth alone is insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull cycle.
According to the CryptoQuant analyst, a convincing signal would require a simultaneous increase in both Bitcoin prices and trading volumes. Darkfost emphasized that the market has not yet provided such dual confirmation.
Bitcoin, launched in 2009 as the first decentralized cryptocurrency, relies on blockchain technology to facilitate peer-to-peer electronic payments without financial intermediaries. Market rallies often encounter resistance when long-term holders decide to sell into rising prices.
The caution from CryptoQuant comes after Bitcoin failed to hold above the 80,000 dollar level amid widespread profit-taking by investors. Analysts at Tokyo-based advisory firm XWIN Japan identified increased selling pressure following the price surge as the primary factor placing pressure on the leading cryptocurrency.
