Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin moving above $81,000 does not signal the end of the market's bear trend.
Cowen said the recent price jump does not confirm a sustainable reversal of the long-term trend, urging market participants not to mistake a temporary surge for a macro recovery.
He stated that observers should focus on how the recovery of the leading cryptocurrency develops rather than concentrating on the price decline seen in September. According to Cowen, a positive signal would require Bitcoin to break past its previous maximum and form a higher peak, noting that similar market dynamics took place between 2019 and 2023.
Key technical indicators and moving averages
Cowen identified the 50-week moving average as another essential landmark for assessing the asset. The technical metric calculates the average price of Bitcoin over approximately one year and currently sits near $79,000. He specified that establishing and holding the asset's price above this level could point to a weakening of the broader downward trend.
Technical indicators like moving averages are widely used in financial trading to smooth out weekly price noise and reveal underlying trends. The 50-week moving average is considered a key threshold for long-term momentum. Bitcoin, launched in 2009 as the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, is known for cyclical price movements that include sharp bull runs followed by extended bear markets.
Downside risks and analyst perspectives
Conversely, Cowen described a negative scenario in which Bitcoin meets price resistance at current levels and forms a lower peak relative to its previous high. Under those conditions, the analyst assessed that the bear trend could persist in a manner similar to price movements recorded from 2014 to 2015.
Danish economist and trader Henrik Zeberg recently expressed a similar view regarding current price action. Zeberg stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin price is more consistent with a short-term rally inside a broader bear trend.
In market analysis, a bear trend is marked by sustained downward price pressure and a series of lower highs and lower lows. Traders monitor key price levels and historical comparisons to determine whether price increases represent sustainable trend changes or brief corrective rallies.
