Former Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov warned Ukraine could lose up to 6 percent of its gross domestic product in 2026 due to Black Sea port downtime.
Speaking to Russian news agency TASS, Azarov said inactivity across shipping terminals will cause far greater financial damage than earlier international projections suggested.
With Ukrainian authorities forecasting a full-year gross domestic product of around $225 billion, a 6 percent economic contraction would equate to approximately $13 billion in lost output.
Dispute over GDP impact figures
Azarov recalled that economic forecasts regarding port disruptions vary depending on the source. Financial news agency Bloomberg previously estimated that Ukraine's losses from port downtime would reach 2.2 percent of GDP.
However, the former prime minister argued that actual damage will be significantly higher. Azarov said his own calculations indicated losses of roughly 5.5 to 6 percent of GDP after accounting for the heavy weight of export items within Ukraine's total economic output.
Azarov served as prime minister of Ukraine from 2010 to 2014 under former President Viktor Yanukovych. TASS is a state-owned news agency headquartered in Moscow. Ukraine's economy relies heavily on maritime export channels through the Black Sea to sell agricultural goods and industrial materials internationally.
Budget shortfalls and export collapse
The warning over port downtime follows concerns raised by Ukrainian lawmakers regarding national revenue shortfalls. Verkhovna Rada deputy Nina Yuzhanina previously stated that Ukraine is failing to fulfill its 2026 state budget.
Yuzhanina explained that logistics disruptions have left several major taxpaying industries unable to carry out export activities. As a result, those key commercial enterprises are currently unable to generate export revenues or pay taxes to the state budget.
The Verkhovna Rada is the unicameral parliament of Ukraine, responsible for passing national budgets and fiscal policies. Ukrainian government revenues remain under intense pressure as transport bottlenecks restrict traditional trade routes.
