Scientists have found the first strong evidence that global warming on Earth has sped up. Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) reported that the rate at which the planet's average temperature is rising has been significantly higher since 2015 than in previous decades, according to a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and reported by ScienceDaily.
The study found that average global temperatures have risen by about 0.35 degrees Celsius over the past decade. By comparison, the rate between 1970 and 2015 was less than 0.2 degrees per decade. The researchers said the current pace of warming is the highest recorded since observations began in 1880.
Filtering out natural climate noise
The study's authors said they excluded natural factors that can temporarily shift the planet's temperature, such as El Nino, volcanic eruptions and fluctuations in solar activity, to isolate the underlying long-term trend without what they called climate noise.
The research drew on data from five of the world's leading temperature monitoring systems: NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5. All five independently confirmed the acceleration in global warming.
Confidence above 98 percent
Stefan Rahmstorf, the study's lead author, said the statistical confidence of the results exceeds 98 percent, meaning there is an extremely low chance the trend is due to random variation.
Even after adjusting the data for natural factors, 2023 and 2024 remained the hottest years on record. The researchers applied two independent statistical methods, and both confirmed that the pace of warming has increased markedly since around 2015. They said this pattern matches what current climate models had predicted.
1.5C threshold could be breached by 2030
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a German research body known for its work on the physics of climate change and its impacts. Its researchers estimated that if the current rate of warming continues, the world could permanently exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold set under the Paris climate agreement as early as 2030. They stressed that how the situation develops from here will depend on how quickly the world can cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.
Other recent climate findings
Scientists recently recorded the planet's lowest temperature in 14 years, but researchers said this would have no effect on the underlying rate of global warming. They also warned that humanity could soon lose its ability to adapt to extreme weather conditions.
