The National Bank of Ukraine reported that Russia's updated tactics of missile strikes on large businesses and logistics infrastructure are gradually exhausting Ukrainian companies. According to the central bank's latest inflation report, the aerial terror campaign in 2026 has a cumulative economic impact rather than an immediate one.
In 2026, the number of attacks on commercial enterprises, ports, and railway facilities exceeded the scale of strikes against energy infrastructure. The strikes targeted key links in supply chains, including production, storage, and transportation. Typical commercial targets included non-military facilities in food processing, pharmaceutical, and tobacco manufacturing industries, according to ACLED data and central bank calculations.
A new phase of Russia's naval blockade began on July 23. Following heavy shelling of ports and vessels in Greater Odesa, ship arrivals stopped entirely, while rail shipments of grain to Black Sea ports decreased sharply.
Impact on Economic Growth and Inflation
The central bank stated that the 2026 campaign weakens businesses over time by increasing costs, destroying fixed capital and inventory, and discouraging investment. The regulator estimated that shelling will reduce Ukraine's GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points, mainly causing problems in transport, mining, and energy sectors.
This drag on growth comes despite the central bank raising its overall 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.8%, driven by budget stimuli. Ukraine also recorded its highest monthly GDP growth in six months during June.
For consumers, the ongoing attacks mean higher prices for goods. The central bank explained that shelling increases business expenses for logistics, security, insurance, and restoring damaged facilities. Companies are gradually passing a portion of these costs onto consumer prices, intensifying fundamental price pressures.
